Foreword: I want fixing housing affordability match right into a 30-second TikTok or Instagram reel. It simply doesn’t. But when we’re severe about fixing homeownership in America, we have to transfer previous AI-generated graphics, random unresearched concepts, and face some onerous truths.
My mom and father taught me to be deferential. Because the final little one of decrease middle-class, twin revenue dad and mom, entitlement was as overseas to our family as a brand new automobile. We weren’t taught to query authority, however quite to obey it. As I’ve aged, I acknowledge it’s not solely our proper however our duty to guage authority with equity and consideration. And when the info reveals the outrageous, it’s okay to be outraged. On the subject of housing, we must be outraged.
One of many issues: First-time homebuyers
The latest Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors survey from early November painted a sobering image: first‐time homebuyers now symbolize simply 21 % of all dwelling purchases—a historic low—and their median age has climbed to 40 years outdated. These aren’t simply statistics. They’re warning indicators that a good portion of a whole era is being systematically locked out of the foundational wealth‐constructing alternative that outlined the American center class for many years. It additional highlights the inherent “illness” that has been allowed to persist inside the largest asset class in your entire world: America Housing Market.
Understanding the info—and Its limitations
The NAR survey comes with necessary caveats. A 120-question survey was mailed to 173,250 latest homebuyers for purchases between July 2024 and June 2025; From these 173,250, got here a paltry 6,103 responses—a price of simply 3.5%. If you wish to guarantee a poor response to your survey, pack it with 120 questions and ship it to individuals who’ve simply purchased a house.
The structure of the survey introduces choice bias: individuals who have sturdy opinions or uncommon experiences usually tend to reply. The info stays necessary, nevertheless it’s unwise to depend on survey information alone. Simply ask anybody who follows Proprietor’s Equal of Lease as a perform of inflation.
From my vantage level as CEO of an unbiased mortgage firm with a nationwide lending footprint, we reviewed 6,707 loans of our personal, originated January 2023 by means of November 2025. That is precise information, not a survey. My interior geek was anxious for the outcomes:
- 45.6% of our debtors had been first-time homebuyers, greater than double the NAR’s discovering.
- FTHB common age: 36.9 years, roughly 3 years decrease than NAR.
- FTHB common revenue: $125,678. That is necessary as we lend in rural, suburban and concrete areas.
- FTHB common DTI: 39.9%.
- FTHB Product combine: Standard (53.6%), FHA (31.3%), VA (13.6%), Different (1.5%)
On the floor, this appears encouraging: we’re serving first-time consumers at youthful ages and at greater percentages than nationwide averages. However these numbers reveal a deeper, extra troubling actuality about who doesn’t get within the door.
The deadly flaw in present coverage
Right here’s the issue: solely 39% of our first‐time dwelling consumers certified for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac’s LLPA exemption, which is restricted to first-time dwelling consumers incomes 100% of Space Median Earnings or much less. For these outdoors the mortgage enviornment, LLPA’s are mortgage degree worth changes. They’ve been round since 2008 however have been considerably worsened many instances, most not too long ago in January 2023 underneath the previous administration. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enable “some” first-time homebuyers to exempt out of those pricing changes (assume penalties) as long as they don’t make an excessive amount of cash.
In accordance with our information, greater than 6 out of 10 first-time consumers—folks of their twenties and thirties attempting to construct their basis—are paying penalties just because they earn what many markets now think about middle-class revenue.
In the meantime, the federal authorities units the conforming mortgage restrict primarily based on resilient dwelling costs, not revenue. Apple, meet orange. Considered one of this stuff shouldn’t be like the opposite. They acknowledge housing prices have shot up and simply elevated the restrict once more to $832,750 for a lot of the nation. However qualification for the LLPA exemption remains to be primarily based on revenue, a metric that hasn’t saved tempo with housing price inflation. This mismatch has rendered well-intentioned packages more and more ineffective, pushing first-time homebuyers out of the market or to FHA financing in higher percentages. Extra about FHA later.
The numbers don’t lie: The affordability gape widens
This disconnect between wage progress and home-price appreciation shouldn’t be theoretical, it’s unfolding in actual time.
In plain English: Wages are the turtle. Residence costs are the hare. On steroids. Since January 2020, dwelling costs have risen +56%. Common hourly earnings? About +28%. In different phrases, dwelling costs have grown roughly twice as quick as wages since early 2020.
That is why our common first‐time homebuyer is now 37 years outdated. That is why they want a mean revenue of $125,678 simply to compete. And this is the reason limiting LLPA exemptions to debtors at 100% AMI is more and more meaningless. That threshold hasn’t saved tempo with what shopping for a house truly prices.
The generational penalties
When first-time homebuyers don’t enter the market till age 37 or 40, we’re not simply delaying homeownership. We’re essentially altering the trajectory of generational wealth creation. We’re additionally altering the material of how our societies evolve. These consumers:
- have fewer years to construct fairness earlier than retirement.
- have much less time to profit from appreciation.
- have diminished capability to move wealth to the subsequent era.
- are delaying family formation, impacting the whole lot from shopper spending to start charges to highschool enrollments.
We’re not observing a short lived market anomaly. We’re bearing witness a basic flaw within the American dream. In the meantime, the present and the previous administrations are/had been both unwilling or unable to vary it.
I’m going with unwilling. Right here’s why.
Cash: It at all times comes again to cash
Critics may argue that eliminating LLPAs for all first‐time consumers would improve danger or cut back returns for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Our firm has not incurred one default from LLPA-exempt first time homebuyers. Decrease month-to-month funds don’t improve danger. They mitigate danger. However lowering pricing penalties and reducing funds reduces returns. And there it’s: cash. It at all times comes again to cash. In that spirit, think about the next:
- Fannie Mae reported internet revenue of $17.0 billion for 2024 and $3.9 billion for Q3 2025. Fannie’s internet price is $105.5 billion. Firstly of 2022, it was $60.3 billion. Fannie Mae’s internet price has elevated 75% in 3 years. Three.
- Freddie Mac reported internet revenue of $11.9 billion for 2024 and $2.8 billion for Q3 2025. Freddie’s internet price is $68 billion. Firstly of 2022, it was $37 billion. Freddie Mac’s internet price has risen 84% in the identical interval. You’ll be able to swallow now.
Here’s a image of the online price trajectories for Fannie and Freddie over the latest 5 years.
Now, right here’s a graph of first-time homebuyers as a proportion of all dwelling purchasers in the identical time interval, adopted by a separate graph for common age of first-time homebuyers.
Put one other method: In the identical three years that Fannie Mae added $45 billion to its stability sheet, the proportion of first-time homebuyers dropped from 34% to 21%. They obtained richer. The American Dream obtained smaller.
A transparent resolution: Get rid of LLPAs for ALL first-time homebuyers
The FHFA ought to instantly get rid of mortgage‐degree pricing changes (LLPAs) for all first‐time homebuyers, no matter revenue.
This isn’t about subsidizing the rich. Our information present the typical first‐time purchaser incomes $125,678 isn’t buying a luxurious property. They’re stretching to afford entry‐degree houses in markets the place these houses have appreciated far sooner than incomes. In lots of markets, this revenue barely qualifies as center class when measured towards housing prices.
The present LLPA construction punishes these debtors with greater prices on the very second they face the best monetary stretch to maneuver from renting to proudly owning.
Can FHA save the day?
Whereas definitely an necessary arrow within the quiver for some first-time homebuyers, FHA has its personal share of “profit-over-mission” bias. FHA contains two totally different mortgage insurance coverage premiums: 1) the upfront premium equal to 1.75% of the mortgage quantity and a couple of) the annual premium (paid month-to-month), which is un-cancellable, no matter fairness, if the preliminary dwelling buy included a down cost of lower than 10% (advised ya that is powerful to place right into a reel).
As such, FHA debtors pay twice to be insured and certain can’t cancel recurring mortgage insurance coverage funds until they refinance.
Congress stipulates that the FHA preserve a Mutual Mortgage Insurance coverage Fund and that fund should uphold a capital ratio of a minimum of 2%. Beneath is a chart from HUD’s personal report back to Congress, reflecting a capital ratio of higher than 5 instances the Congressional requirement. I’ve been ready for the latest report, which was due in November of this 12 months. As of the writing of this text on November 29th, no report has been revealed, neither is there a timeline for launch.
When you’re marinating in that, verify this out. As of Q2 2025, the MMI Fund now has a Whole Account Steadiness of $174 billion, a 207% improve since January 2020.
To be truthful, FHA did cut back considered one of its premiums in March 2023. However clearly, that discount hasn’t impacted their means to spice up internet price and extra may/must be accomplished. In truth, since Q2 2023 (after the reduce), FHA has amassed an extra $40 billion in internet price. The mathematics isn’t difficult: FHA may reduce premiums in half tomorrow, make them cancellable at 20% fairness, and nonetheless exceed necessities by 150%.
A name to motion
FHFA and FHA have the authority immediately to make modifications. No new laws required. No Congressional approval. No 10-year research interval. They don’t have to create AI pictures for social media, publish unusual concepts on X with no analysis or contemplation, or announce weird initiatives like altering LLPAs for second houses, 50-year amortizations, and even moveable mortgages. All of those have been floated about within the conventional and social media over the previous 3 months as “one of the best concepts” to save lots of housing. Unreal. It will be laughable if it weren’t so insulting.
There are answers inside our grasp. That is however one. We’d like daring, fast motion to reverse the troubling developments in first-time homebuyer participation. Eliminating LLPAs for all first-time homebuyers and lowering FHA mortgage insurance coverage premiums and phrases would:
- cut back upfront price burdens by 1000’s of {dollars} for the consumers who need assistance most.
- ship a transparent sign that homeownership stays a viable path for youthful People.
- align our insurance policies with the financial actuality of immediately’s housing market.
- make sure that “first-time homebuyer” encouragement is greater than empty rhetoric.
- assist reverse the troubling development of sellers de-listing their houses on the quickest tempo in practically a decade.
- And, oh yeah, enhance quantity for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA. Isn’t that the purpose?
We will have interaction the subsequent era and restore religion that the American Dream of homeownership stays accessible. The query now – for our leaders and for us – shouldn’t be a query of capability. It’s a query of will.
Mark Milam is the CEO of Highland Mortgage.
This column doesn’t essentially replicate the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial division and its homeowners. To contact the editor accountable for this piece: [email protected].
