By late 2024, Reffkin was blunt about what he sees as Compass’s core asset: itemizing stock.
“Itemizing stock stays the lifeblood of the residential actual property market,” he mentioned, arguing that Compass already has “a depth of stock in a lot of our native markets that’s unmatched.”
That assertion issues as a result of it reveals the corporate’s North Star — not merely recruiting or income, however the control point Compass believes can reshape client conduct and, probably, the true property business.
The stock benefit
Reffkin’s goal early within the recreation was bold: a median of 30% market share in its high 30 markets. The logic? That stock benefit will finally pull patrons into Compass.com, not as a brokerage web site however as a vacation spot for property search.
However “inventory-first” doesn’t scale nationally on an island. Compass scales by means of acquisitions — and in 2024, the agency made it clear that M&A is the primary route, not a aspect quest. It has moved from early agent incentive acquisitions — excessive fee splits, signing bonuses and fairness — to greater conquests that transfer the needle.
Enterprise-changing acquisition methods
One of many agency’s early acquisitions was Pacific Union in 2018, which established Compass as a significant participant within the California luxurious market. One other turning level is when the agency entered Louisiana and Mississippi by means of its buy of Gulf Coast-based brokerage Latter & Blum. The acquisition additionally added greater than 3,000 brokers, a significant soar after Compass reported a median of 14,689 principal brokers within the ultimate three months of 2023.
Within the ultimate weeks of 2024, Compass introduced plans to acquire Christie’s Worldwide Actual Property and @properties — a deal it framed as each home power and a global leap. In a submitting with the Securities and Alternate Fee, Compass mentioned it might buy the businesses for $150 million in money at closing, plus roughly 44.13 million shares of Compass Class A inventory, with extra changes tied to share value after the one-year anniversary of closing.
These acquisitions had been framed internally as an extension of what Compass had already been constructing.
“Compass as a model had huge natural development,” mentioned Rory Golod, the corporate’s president of development and communications. “Then you definitely had the closing of the Christie’s acquisition final January. You had the Wherever (deal) coming collectively this January.”
Golod mentioned that bringing on corporations with sturdy native standing helps Compass “get to the outcomes we’re in search of quicker,” including that the true take a look at of any acquisition is the way it lands with brokers and brokers. “The decide of this, finally, goes to be brokers and affiliate house owners,” he mentioned.
Attaching providers
Compass development will not be solely about brokerage sides — it’s about attaching providers.
Golod mentioned Compass needs additional growth of ancillary providers and deeper integration into the agent platform, pointing to @properties’ “actually sturdy title enterprise” in Chicago for example of how acquisitions can create an prompt service footprint. He additionally famous that @properties’ mortgage three way partnership with Fee would strengthen Compass’s mortgage choices.
Golod described the announcement to buy Anywhere Real Estate as a defining second.
“I feel, definitely, the Wherever announcement for us is unquestionably the most important,” he mentioned. “It’s extremely thrilling to be sitting right here speaking to you in the present day as Compass International Holdings, and as one firm with these distinct manufacturers and these storied legacy manufacturers.”
Throughout the proposed-deal interval, it was estimated that the Compass–Wherever merger would kind comparable mortgage joint ventures and, if accomplished, collectively oversee a $9 billion-per-year mortgage operation — sufficient to make the agency the Twenty sixth-largest U.S. originator within the first half of 2025.
The identical story described a definitive all-stock merger settlement valuing Wherever at $10 billion. It brings collectively 340,000 actual property professionals throughout the U.S. and 120 international locations, whereas increasing the corporate’s title and escrow attain.
Response to the Compass-Wherever merger
By early 2026, Compass and Wherever formally closed their $1.6 billion deal. That got here 4 months after Compass introduced the proposed acquisition and properly forward of Compass’s unique estimate of a summer time or fall 2026 cut-off date. Now, Reffkin’s focus has turned to integration — and the business’s response.
“We’re solely a pair days in, however it’s so energizing and constructive to see the response from actual property professionals out within the area, as a result of that’s actually what issues right here,” Golod mentioned. “This complete business is one the place all of us will succeed collectively if we work collectively.”
What’s most attention-grabbing, although, is that Compass frames this complete development period as occurring alongside newfound self-discipline. Golod mentioned Compass discovered how essential it’s to run the enterprise with “actually sturdy fiscal discipline,” particularly as predictions a few sharp 2025 bounce-back didn’t materialize. The corporate intends to maintain working conservatively, he mentioned, even when it reaches some extent the place it not has to.
That self-discipline underpins Reffkin’s forward-looking monetary narrative: If Compass continues including to its web agent depend annually; maintains or modestly improves agent economics; and retains $600 million in annual value financial savings with minimal 3% to 4% inflationary development in 2025 and past, it believes it could generate “tons of and tons of of thousands and thousands” in adjusted EBITDA and free money stream because the market normalizes to five.4 million to five.6 million dwelling gross sales in 2026.
Put all of it collectively and Compass’s “quick development” story seems to be much less like a single rocket launch and extra like a repeatable sample — purchase credible operators, broaden providers, construct itemizing stock benefits and push the industry’s rules towards a market the place the stock technique can thrive.
As Golod put it, Compass views its function as larger than its personal stability sheet. “We acknowledge that we’ve a duty not simply to our brokers however to the entire business,” he mentioned.
Whether or not opponents just like the method is nearly inappropriate. Compass is constructing towards a world the place scale isn’t nearly what number of brokers you may have — it’s what number of itemizing relationships you management and what number of providers you possibly can connect to each transaction.
And if Compass is true about its personal flywheel, the query for the remainder of the business isn’t, “How did they develop so rapidly?” It’s, “What occurs to everybody else if that mannequin turns into the brand new baseline?”
