Weekly housing stock information
Stock fell week over week, which isn’t a complete shock for final week, however the magnitude of the decline was notable, and I attribute it to the snowstorm, as we noticed a year-over-year decline in new listings information. Quickly, this storm’s impression will cross and we’ll get again on monitor. Stock progress, which peaked at 33% in 2025, is now under 9% yr over yr. The year-over-year comps will get tougher as we heading in to spring.
- Weekly stock change: (Jan. 30- Feb. 6): Stock fell from 696,222 to 687,697
- Similar week final yr: (Jan. 31-Feb. 7): Stock fell from 634,936 to 632,325
New listings information
New listings information was down barely week-to-week however down large yr over yr, however I attribute a number of this to climate. We should always get again on monitor quickly, and hopefully this yr, for the primary time shortly, see new listings get above 80,000 through the seasonal peak months and have some progress. For context, through the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings information for the previous two years:
- 2026: 48,365
- 2025: 53,861
Value-cut share
Usually, about one-third of houses bear value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the proportion of value cuts improve. Nevertheless, charges are close to multiyear lows, so what’s occurring with our price-cut share information now? After a really very long time, we’re seeing unfavorable year-over-year price-cut share information, which shouldn’t be stunning as a result of demand has picked up a tad and stock progress has slowed down.
The worth-cut share for final week:
Mortgage buy utility information
Purchase applications have had a strong begin to the yr, exhibiting stronger progress than I anticipated, however the snowstorm affected final week’s information line, sending it down 14% week over week whereas solely up 4% yr over yr. Such a large week-to-week decline is one thing we’d see if mortgage charges jumped 75 foundation factors, however charges had been regular, so that is weather-related. And we had been working from elevated ranges with buy apps.
These functions sometimes lag gross sales information by 30 to 90 days. Right here’s 2026 to date:
- 2 constructive week-over-week outcomes
- 1 unfavorable week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
Weekly pending gross sales
Pending house gross sales information affords a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes might be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Final week this information line was affected by the snowstorm and was unfavorable week-over-week and yr over yr. Usually, pending gross sales hit the present house gross sales report 30-60 days later.
Weekly pending gross sales for final week prior to now few years:
- 2026: 54,255
- 2025: 57,511
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
As soon as once more final week, we confronted financial headwinds with a number of negative labor reports, and we noticed some bond market motion within the 10-year yield, however little motion in mortgage charges. Fee volatility has lately compressed, and we haven’t seen a major spike in mortgage charges as now we have in earlier years. Additionally, the 10-year yield continues to be trending inside its low-level vary, which it has been in since September of 2025, albeit close to the higher ranges of that vary.
As soon as once more, we didn’t see an excessive amount of motion in mortgage charges final week. Charges ended the week decrease at 6.15%, in keeping with Mortgage News Daily and mortgage rate lock data from Polly exhibits a weekend charge of 6.25%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a constructive story for housing in 2026, decreasing mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.84%. If spreads matched the 2023 peak ranges, mortgage charges can be 1.27 share factors larger, at 7.42%. With spreads returning to regular, mortgage pricing can stay decrease for longer than in earlier years.
The week forward: BLS Jobs report, Fed speeches and present house gross sales
We’re heading into a giant week of information: the Jobs Friday report has been moved to this Wednesday, we’ll get retail gross sales, quite a few Fed speeches and the present house gross sales report will now be reported earlier within the month. The Fed speeches will grow to be more and more attention-grabbing now that Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the subsequent Fed chair.
For the BLS Jobs report, preserve an eye fixed out for the wage progress and job revisions, since most individuals don’t have any religion within the headline information a lot anymore. I imagine present house gross sales information can be impacted this week, not solely attributable to snow but in addition the December holidays. We can have about two months of information that may present some snow impression in there, after which we will transfer on from that.
