Weekly pending gross sales
Pending dwelling gross sales information offers a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes may be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. The final six weeks have proven constructive yearly development. Nevertheless, the yearly development did decelerate final week and the week-to-week information dipped.
Weekly pending gross sales normally take 30-60 days to hit the gross sales information. Sometimes, mortgage charges above 6.64% and breaking over 7% actually impression the information. Beneath 6.25% has been the candy spot over the previous a number of years, excluding short-term variables.
Weekly pending gross sales final week over the past two years:
- 2026: 70, 209
- 2025: 69,183
Mortgage buy software information
Buy software information is a forward-looking indicator: development right here leads dwelling gross sales by roughly 30-90 days. Final week, we did see year-over-year development, however it slowed from 12% to five%, and we noticed a week-to-week decline of 5%. So, increased mortgage charges bit into the yearly development information final week.
For this information line, what I actually worth is at the least 12-14 weeks of constructive weekly development. If you may get this alongside year-over-year development, we’ve one thing legit, for positive. For 2026, each week has proven constructive year-over-year development.
Right here’s 2026 to this point:
- 5 constructive week-over-week prints
- 5 adverse week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year development
- 11 weeks of constructive year-over-year development
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the Iran battle began, I talked about how I’d be shocked if it continued past March 21 due to the financial implications of conflict, together with increased vitality and enter prices. The longer the battle goes on, the upper short-term charges can go till we see actual financial harm.
In final weekend’s tracker, I talked about how the 10-year yield has the backdrop now to go again to the height ranges of my forecast for 2026. Because of the Iran escalation, we noticed an intraday excessive of 4.48% on Friday, closing round 4.44%. Thoughts that we have been sub-4% earlier than the conflict began, and it took a number of weeks earlier than the mortgage charges and the 10-year yield began to take this conflict extra critically, however right here we’re, near the height of the 2026 forecast.
Clearly, the conflict wasn’t the explanation I forecast this stage, however all analysts have to regulate to loopy occasions.
Mortgage charges ended the week at 6.64%, based on Mortgage News Daily, and Polly’s mortgage rate lock data exhibits a weekend charge of 6.41%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a positive story for housing in 2026, as mortgage charges would have simply been over 7% in 2023, 2024 and 2025, with the worst ranges of the spreads. Nevertheless, the spreads, which have been getting worse in February as yields fell, compressing volatility on the draw back, are actually heading increased with this conflict. However even now, as you’ll be able to see beneath, we’re nonetheless at higher ranges than the previous two years.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 2%.
Nevertheless, I wished to indicate what charges could be this week in comparison with the worst ranges of the spreads over the previous three years, with the 10-year yield at its present stage.
- If we had the worst ranges of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage charges could be 7.75% right now, not 6.64%.
- If we had the worst ranges of 2024, mortgage charges could be 7.37% right now.
- If we had the worst ranges of 2025, mortgage charges could be 7.18% right now.
Weekly housing stock information
Housing inventory is beginning its seasonal enhance. That mentioned, the expansion charge of stock has actually slowed from final 12 months’s peak ranges. Nevertheless, we’re removed from the unhealthy ranges of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
We’ve gone from 33% year-over-year development in stock on the highest level in 2025, to five.69% final week. Prior to now, stock development picked up amid increased charges, softening demand and rising year-over-year new listings.
- Weekly stock change: (March 21-March 28): Stock rose from 705,633 to 713,549
- Identical week final 12 months: (March 22 -March 39): Stock rose from 668,185 to 675,557
New listings information
New listings information had a sluggish week, however was barely constructive 12 months over 12 months. We must always get new listings above 80,000 per week through the seasonal peak months, which might be on the low finish of the quantity we might see in a standard interval.
I hope for the brand new listings information to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week through the seasonal peak durations, because it did from 2013 to 2019. Nevertheless, it’s wanting much less and fewer probably for this to happen. For context, through the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings information for the previous two years:
- 2026: 67,934
- 2025: 67,855
Value-cut share
Sometimes, about one-third of properties endure value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the proportion of value cuts will increase.
In my 2026 dwelling value forecast, I had a adverse 0.62% name for the 12 months nationally. Nevertheless, mortgage charges have been decrease than I believed they might be at the beginning of the 12 months, and the FHFA’s introduced purchase of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads decrease than I anticipated. I believed we might see that enchancment afterward within the 12 months.
So, earlier than the battle began, my forecast regarded improper for 2026. Now, if charges head increased and keep increased for longer, I do have a shot at my name being extra appropriate. Nonetheless, the price-cut share is beneath final 12 months at the moment.
The worth-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Iran, Iran, Iran and jobs week
I do know it’s jobs week, and that does have some worth even with the battle nonetheless going; nevertheless, nothing will likely be regular till this conflict ends. Additionally, the markets aren’t taking the White Home jawboning to convey oil costs down as critically as they’ve earlier than, so it will likely be fascinating to see the bond market response to grease costs and the labor information this week.
