We’re excited to announce that Jonathan Miller, who has lengthy authored essentially the most authoritative report on the residential actual property market, is partnering with The Actual Deal. Beneath, you’ll discover his Housing Notes column, which is able to now run on our web site a number of instances per week. As well as, Miller’s quarterly report for New York Metropolis, which he printed by Douglas Elliman for greater than three a long time, will now be “The Actual Deal report, ready by Jonathan Miller.” Miller’s information enterprise, Streetmatrix, which offers hyperlocal information, will present statistics to TRD Information subscribers.
— TRD editors
Right here’s a psychology primer coat earlier than absorbing billionaire takes on the financial system
Good grief. I’ve been writing rather a lot about uber wealth within the housing market just lately, here, here, here, here, here, and here. Not as a result of I wish to, however as a result of it’s actually in our faces each single day. In truth, I’m personally working to strengthen my resistance to the billionaire worship that rains down on us all day, day by day. Members of this rarified monetary strata of the inhabitants who’re excellent at creating their very own wealth typically assume they’re blessed with credible experience throughout all parts of society. That’s an phantasm. Please indulge me on a brief descent into the rabbit gap:
- Halo impact: When somebody will get wealthy in a single discipline, we assume they’re sensible about every part, even subjects they don’t truly know effectively. Nice wealth implies vital experience in every part. Johnny Carson famously instructed the story that his late-night tv success led him to consider he was additionally nice at tennis, creating quite a lot of private frustration.
- Authority bias + media amplification: Billionaires get handled as computerized specialists on any matter, and the media repeats their views excess of these of actual specialists. We noticed this with the handful of billionaire tech bros fleeing California to flee the rumored state wealth tax as in the event that they represented all the rich within the state.
- Aspirational psychology: Many individuals think about they’re future billionaires, not members of a unique class, so that they establish with the extremely‑wealthy as an alternative of questioning their energy. Extremely high-end actual property simply offers this context.
- American success myths: We nonetheless inform a narrative that the richest individuals earned it purely by expertise and onerous work, though most additionally benefited from huge head begins, favorable techniques, and connections. If we’ve discovered something over the previous few a long time, it’s that the US isn’t a meritocracy as a result of it doesn’t account for the widening wealth hole.
Thanks for indulging me on this human psychology rabbit gap. I do love monitoring high-end actual property, however let’s in the reduction of on the billionaire worship.
A $400 million itemizing enters the actual property zeitgeist
Right here’s one other instance of how high-end housing retains pushing our consideration away from housing for the remainder of us — it’s purely aspirational: Will a Los Angeles Megamansion Become America’s First $400 Million Home?
This asking value isn’t a brand new report, nevertheless it’s been 4 years since we’ve had an audacious one to vet. Bear in mind The One? We have been all subjected to infinite protection of this $500 million itemizing as a result of it was shockingly high-priced and, like most of those listings, was disconnected from the native market. After 5 years of the developer making an attempt to construct worth into notion, it bought for $126 million, or $141 million including expenses.
Right here’s the timeline:
- Round 2017, the developer and early press have been already positioning The One as a $500 million itemizing, with expectations that it might hit the market at that value as soon as accomplished.
- By the late 2010s, it was mentioned and marketed conceptually on the 500-million-dollar stage whereas nonetheless beneath building, nevertheless it by no means discovered a purchaser at or close to that value.
- By 2021–early 2022, going through over $100 million in debt and foreclosures, the worth steerage had been reduce dramatically, with discuss of $225–$350 million, then a proper public sale listing value of $295 million.
- The property lastly bought by way of chapter public sale on March 3, 2022, for a $126 million value (roughly $141 million together with charges), ending the multi‑yr effort to make a $500 million‑greenback sale occur.
I’m getting PTSD simply eager about these 5 years of fixed protection.
Admittedly, I’m on this new $400 million LA listing as a result of it’s been some time. Nationally, there have been 5 or more $100 million sales every year except one since 2019, with the very best quantity bought in 2025.
Most significantly, I received a chart into the Wall Avenue Journal, and charts = life.
Since 2014, I’ve been tracking $50 million+ sales in the US (again to 2000) and it’s changing into a chore due to the increasing quantity. Again then I made a decision to deal with monitoring closed gross sales ≥ $50 million as a result of there have been a LOT of listings which have entered the market with great fanfare and never sold. A whole lot of these listings have been in all probability positioned on-line for the house owners to be a “bold-faced name” in tabloids.
Billionaire Ken Griffin doesn’t need consideration for buying a $238 million second house
After I learn this Bloomberg piece, Citadel’s Griffin to Meet With New York Governor After Mamdani Spat, I used to be stunned the billionaire was stunned. I received the impression that he was implying he would lead all different high-net-worth people out of town due to the bad vibes. He referred to as Mamdani’s reference to his house for the proposed pied-à-terre tax: “a profound lack of judgment,” and referred to as it a “private assault.” In contrast to many different billionaires who hold forth rather a lot on financial issues, I discover Griffin’s economic observations quite prescient. For context, he already got a lot of unwanted attention for owning the most expensive condo in the U.S., which has been mentioned thousands of times on Google and on local, national and international media shops for the reason that 2019 closing. For years, I’ve described Griffin as somebody who appears to take pleasure in paying full retail for residential actual property worldwide. That’s his proper, and extra energy to him for that. Nevertheless it additionally makes him a public persona. Right here’s that Wall Street Journal article with one of my Ken Griffin takes.
‘”He’s a whale’s whale,” mentioned property appraiser Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel. “In my profession, I’ve actually by no means run into any person that singularly has dominated a phase of the market in so many alternative locations. He’s a prolific purchaser of full retail-price actual property.”’
He will get quite a lot of consideration for his area of interest interest, so why does this trouble him now? I’m actually curious. I’m certain this received’t be the final reference to his $238 million non-primary house. Once you purchase the costliest house in U.S. historical past, I feel it’s cheap to count on it will likely be cited repeatedly within the media or by politicians.
In some ways, Griffin might be thought of a key driver of the US housing market above the $50 million threshold. Though a few of his report purchases, like Faena Home in Miami and No. 9 Watson in Chicago, have been resold at a considerable losses, -20 % on the previous and -44 % on the latter. I don’t begrudge him for having enjoyable within the residential actual property area, however with a sample of paying a few of the highest costs in quite a lot of places, he’s going to get some undesirable consideration.
When the notorious (and since convicted of 10 federal human trafficking fees every) Alexander Brothers brokered his 220 Central Park South purchase, the cornerstone of the launch of their once new, now defunct, firm Official, he was rumored to be fairly indignant concerning the related publicity. And I’m certain this pied-à-terre tax consideration would possibly danger some uber-wealthy individuals from briefly shying away from tremendous luxurious purchases of NYC. However let’s be critical. He was singled out for having the very best condominium sale in America. If somebody had purchased a property for much more after his buy, they’d seemingly have been the choose for the pied-à-terre tax by the NYC mayor, not Griffin. It could possibly’t be private as Griffin claims.
Griffin’s Thursday assembly with Governor Hochul will solely deliver extra consideration to his $238 million second home, which will probably be topic to the proposed pied-à-terre tax. Right here’s a partial listing of his U.S. purchases to point out this isn’t a one-off. I left off worldwide purchases like his $125 million Central London mansion purchase.
Bear in mind, that is what he does, consistently.
Closing ideas
Our tradition’s halo impact round billionaires used the saga of “The One” megamansion and a brand new $400 million LA itemizing for instance how trophy properties generate years of media hype, typically ending in steep reductions or no sale in any respect, whereas nonetheless dominating our consideration. On the similar time, mega-housing house owners like Ken Griffin turn out to be emblematic of the uber-high-end market, whose second properties inevitably turn out to be political props in debates like New York’s proposed pied‑à‑terre tax, whether or not they just like the highlight or not.
The precise ultimate thought — Let’s deal with the important stuff, just like the historic quality-of-life points.
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“Death by a thousand cuts”: real estate reacts to governor’s pied-à-terre tax proposal
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“Miami’s open for business”: Ken Griffin doubles down on offices at his Brickell supertall
