What’s a New Yorker acquired to do to get a brand new rental?
The inventory crisis that has had new growth groups sounding the alarm since final 12 months seems to have arrived, with town counting its lowest variety of new growth models in over a decade.
The shortage has led to some disappointing exercise amongst new growth tasks thus far in 2026, with brokers working within the few deliveries say they’re getting calls about their tasks months earlier than the doorways of a gross sales gallery have even opened.
From April to September, new growth contracts are down 26 p.c in comparison with final 12 months, in response to information from Marketproof. However throughout that very same interval, resale rental contracts are up 12 p.c, a sign that consumers need condos, they’re simply having a tough time discovering any new ones.
“There’s simply not sufficient new growth in stock on the market for the consumers who’re on the lookout for it,” mentioned Corcoran Sunshine Advertising and marketing Group president Kelly Mack. Demand has shortly eaten up any new models that do come to market. Within the final 12 months, sponsor gross sales have outpaced new unit introductions 2-to-1.
On the finish of August, Manhattan was left with simply 2,800 models of latest stock, the bottom whole since 2014.
Lots of these remaining models are additionally concentrated in buildings which were available on the market for years, like One Wall Street and 125 Greenwich. The Waldorf-Astoria conversion and the Malabar Residences on 57th Street even have a major variety of models to promote.
“An enormous portion of the stock that’s presently available on the market is cussed stock,” mentioned Compass Improvement Advertising and marketing’s Dan Parker.
Whereas essentially the most fascinating neighborhoods have lengthy been the Higher East Facet and Downtown, over 60 p.c of the prevailing stock is concentrated in the Financial District and Midtown, the place even newer buildings have struggled to promote lately.
Initiatives which have popped up in additional coveted areas have offered shortly, typically with only a few models ever even hitting the open market.
Legion Funding Group and Nahla Capital’s challenge at 1122 Madison is almost offered out in lower than a 12 months, inking main offers, including one for a penthouse unit asking $89 million. The Village West at 525 Sixth Avenue has moved all of its 68 models, in response to the event’s web site. And 220 East Ninth Avenue offered all of its models with out ever opening a gross sales gallery.
“You might have these, what I’ll name, choose success tales, in prime residential areas in areas which have lacked product for a number of years,” mentioned Brown Harris Stevens Improvement Advertising and marketing’s Robin Schneiderman.
An rising pipeline
This fall, the dynamics look like shifting. For the primary time in years, town may have an above-average variety of new models hitting the market.
Greater than 1,000 new models are slated to return on-line between now and the top of the 12 months, a 94 p.c improve from final 12 months and a ten p.c improve in comparison with the 10-year historic common, in response to Mack.
Though there doesn’t look like any new contenders for the city’s “It” building coming to market, upcoming launches embody a number of buildings in areas which are already well-liked with rich consumers.
Corcoran Sunshine Advertising and marketing Group is promoting the 72-unit 101 Franklin in Tribeca, which simply tapped Tara King-Brown and Richard Hicks to guide gross sales. The challenge is the biggest in Tribeca in a decade, in response to Marketproof.
Legion Funding Group, sizzling off its success at 1122 Madison, can also be anticipated to launch gross sales at two downtown buildings this 12 months, each with Corcoran Sunshine.
At 550 West twenty first Avenue, the developer has a deliberate 83-unit challenge, with gross sales anticipated to begin at $2.5 million. Legion and EJS Group are additionally anticipated to launch gross sales on the Kohn Pedersen Fox-designed Greenwich Spire at 11 West thirteenth Avenue, which may have 34 models, and at roughly 500 ft tall, turn into the tallest constructing within the neighborhood.
Uptown, a workforce from BHSDM is dealing with gross sales at a Robert A.M. Stern-designed constructing at 200 West 88th Avenue. The Nortco Improvement may have 37 models priced beginning at $5 million, in response to Marketproof.
There’s additionally the long-awaited relaunch of 262 Fifth Avenue, which had a false begin final 12 months earlier than tapping a new sales team led by Sotheby’s Worldwide Realty’s Nikki Area and Ben Pofcher, in partnership with Sotheby’s Worldwide Realty Improvement Advisors.
The launches coming this 12 months ought to function a real litmus check for the brand new growth market, which has for thus lengthy been constrained by its stock issues, Schneiderman mentioned.
“Lastly, we’re going to get some new stock,” he mentioned. “We’re additionally going to get it in some prime areas, and that ought to be a powerful barometer of the state of the market going ahead.”
Lengthy-term
Nonetheless, the market stays a methods away from what many contemplate wholesome stock ranges.
From 2026 to 2029, Manhattan is anticipated to see a mean of about 1,500 models come to market every year, roughly 16 p.c beneath pre-2021 ranges, in response to information from Corcoran Sunshine.
The excellent news is that a few of the provide is shifting to areas that appear higher positioned to soak up new models. The Higher East Facet is projected so as to add 182 models yearly, a 54 p.c improve in comparison with the earlier 10-year common, whereas the Monetary District shall be bringing on no new main rental buildings.
New condos coming to market on the Higher West Facet are additionally anticipated to tick up 8 p.c yearly throughout the following three years, nevertheless it’s nearly fully pushed by Extell’s 430-unit project on the former Disney campus. Downtown deliveries are anticipated to fall 10 p.c throughout that point interval, as builders battle to search out land in essentially the most fascinating areas, whereas Midtown is anticipated to leap 46 p.c.
Brooklyn, which has been dwelling to current main tasks from Naftali Group and Two Bushes on the Williamsburg waterfront, is projected to have its pipeline shrink much more. The borough will see nearly 30 p.c fewer condos come to market from 2026 to 2029 on an annual common than it did throughout the earlier 10 years.
The 2 tendencies which have dominated this decade — smaller tasks and higher-end deliveries — can even seemingly persist.
Items coming to market from buildings in Manhattan with over 150 models will drop nearly 40 p.c within the subsequent three years in comparison with the earlier 10-year annual common, in response to Corcoran Sunshine’s forecast.
Much more drastic, solely 43 models per 12 months will come from condos with a blended worth per sq. foot of $1,800 or much less, down 74 p.c from the earlier 10 years. However there shall be 123 models per 12 months from condos asking over $5,000 per sq. foot, nearly triple the earlier 10-year common.
“The elevated value of doing enterprise makes it a lot more durable to develop these condominium tasks that pencil out until they will actually command costs on the very high of the market,” Mack mentioned. “It’s gotten extremely tough and tougher over time to place collectively the varieties of assemblages that help large-scale growth of any sort, particularly in a few of the most fascinating components of town.”
