Dave:
Mortgage charges just lately hit their lowest level in a 12 months. Issues had been trending in a very good course after which the fed cart charges and mortgage charges truly simply went up. It might appear complicated, however should you take a look at the financial knowledge, what’s taking place does make sense. And on right this moment’s episode, I’m going to elucidate what’s going on on the Fed, why mortgage charges have reacted the way in which they’ve, and share what I believe we will all anticipate going ahead. Hey everybody. Welcome to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer. Thanks all a lot for being right here for one more Fed Response video. You’ve most likely heard lots of people celebrating this Fed fee lower or predicting that this was the start of mortgage charges actually coming down and affordability coming again to the housing market. However sadly, not less than as of now, and I’m recording this on Halloween, so two days after the Fed fee lower, mortgage charges have solely gone up.
And should you hearken to this present, you might perceive a bit of bit why that’s taking place thus far, however I wouldn’t blame you should you had been confused. The entire world’s saying the Fed cuts charges and mortgage charges go down after which they lower charges and mortgage charges go up. It’s a bit of bit bizarre, however I believe I may help you all perceive what’s occurring right here. In order that’s the plan for the episode right this moment. I’m going to speak a bit of bit about simply what truly occurred on the Fed assembly after which I’m going to enter the why of all this and simply clarify among the financial background that’s driving this stuff. In order that’s what we’re going to do. Let’s soar in. First up, what truly occurred on the Fed? Effectively, they lower the federal funds fee 25 foundation factors. That simply means 0.25%. That is no shock.
That is what everybody was anticipating. They mainly mentioned that they had been going to do that and that’s why mortgage charges had been trending down a bit of bit heading into this assembly as a result of folks had been anticipating and baking within the lower earlier than it truly occurred. That is among the humorous issues that occurs with these Fed conferences is that folks watch this so rigorously that the banks and individuals who create mortgage charges or different kinds of loans are planning forward for what they suppose the Fed goes to do. They don’t look ahead to that precise determination to return. And so you’d suppose, oh, the Fed did what they mentioned they had been going to do. Mortgage charges shouldn’t actually transfer in any explicit course, however they went up, they had been getting shut to six.1%. As of right this moment, they’re about six and 1 / 4, in order that they went up 0.15%.
So it’s not loopy, however it’s a reversal of a pattern. We had been seeing mortgage charges pattern down for some time and any reversal of a pattern like that’s notable and the rationale issues went again up and didn’t simply keep the identical was largely due to what Jerome Powell mentioned throughout his press convention after the assembly. It looks as if most individuals in Wall Road establishments, bond buyers, whoever, they’re all relying on that December fee lower. Then Powell comes out in his press convention and says, not so quick the December fee lower is, I believe he mentioned something however sure was his actual quote, some doubt on one thing that the trade felt was a foregone conclusion. And that type of modified sentiment and pushed bond yields again up and that’s why mortgage charges went again up. So that’s type of the lengthy story of what’s occurring right here.
It’s not that the Fed shouldn’t be going to chop charges, I truly suppose they’re most likely nonetheless going to chop charges a number of instances over the following 12 months, however it’s that they’ve type of launched a bit of little bit of uncertainty into what folks had been feeling fairly clear about prior. Now the query after all is why did he try this? Why is he introducing uncertainty into the market proper now? You’ll suppose that he desires to be as sure and clear as potential. Effectively, the Fed’s job, as we discuss lots on the present, is two-sided. They’re answerable for sustaining worth stability, which is simply the flowery means of claiming controlling inflation, and so they’re additionally answerable for maximizing employment. So actually preserving and making an attempt to keep up the labor market as finest as potential. However proper now we’re type of on this distinctive time the place each of these issues are unsure.
We don’t know if inflation’s below management, it’s gone up 4 months in a row or is it getting higher? We don’t know if the labor market is getting uncontrolled, and I believe what Jerome Powell is doing right here is simply making an attempt to hedge and say that they don’t actually know which is the larger drawback proper now, at the moment as of the final couple of months, they suppose that the labor market breaking is the larger drawback. That’s why they’re reducing charges. They’re much less involved about inflation than they’re the labor market. That’s why he lower charges. However he’s saying in maintaining the door open for the concept that the labor market is likely to be okay, inflation truly would possibly worsen, and in that case they’re not going to chop charges. And so that’s simply this little little bit of uncertainty that he’s launched into the market and is one thing that we’re going to all need to keep watch over.
In order that’s what I wish to discuss extra on this episode as a result of we wish to know not simply the place the federal funds fee goes, we wish to know the place mortgage charges are going, and for that we will’t simply take a look at what Jerome Powell says. We have to perceive the place the bond market is likely to be going. Mortgage charges don’t comply with what the federal funds fee does. Federal funds controls what known as the brief finish of the curve. That is short-term lending prices. Lengthy-term lending prices like mortgages are broadly influenced by the identical issues that the Federal Reserve is considering inflation recession dangers. There’s much more different variables, however these are two of the principle ones that they’re and what the Fed does and what bond buyers do should not essentially all the time the identical factor, however I believe if we do a deep dive into what’s taking place with inflation within the labor market, we’ll get a clearer image of what the Fed is prone to do and what the bond market is prone to do, after which we will perceive the place mortgage charges and affordability are going. In order that’s what I wish to do with the remainder of this episode. We do bought to take a fast break although. We’ll be proper again.
Welcome again to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer right here speaking about what occurred with the Fed, however we’re shifting on from what occurred final week and what Jerome Powell mentioned, and we’re going to do our personal evaluation right here of what’s taking place with the labor market, what is occurring with inflation proper now, as a result of that’s going to inform us not simply what the Fed would possibly do, however hopefully we might all see that actually what the Fed does isn’t actually impacting residential actual property proper now. Mortgage charges are going up after they lower. I ought to point out it ought to assist industrial actual property. The federal funds fee influences short-term lending, far more than long-term lending, and since industrial lending is shorter, fee cuts may have an even bigger influence on industrial. So I ought to simply point out that, however why we’re type of digging into inflation within the labor market shouldn’t be as a result of we’re making an attempt to determine what the Fed goes to do.
We wish to perceive what the bond market’s going to do as a result of that can inform us the place mortgage charges are going, which goes to inform us lots about housing affordability, which goes to inform us most likely what’s going to occur with the housing market within the subsequent couple of months. In order that’s the plan right here. We’re in a bizarre time with the financial system proper now. We’ve been for a few years now. This has simply been the one factor that’s constant over the previous couple of years is the financial system continues to ship combine and bizarre indicators. Proper now we’re seeing what I believe is a declining labor market. I’ve talked about that on the present lots and we’ve seen cussed inflation at finest and rising inflation at worst, and that is uncommon, this isn’t what usually occurs. You don’t in regular instances have a danger of inflation concurrently the danger of a recession or worsening labor market.
Usually in I common customary outdated financial cycle, what occurs is you could have an enlargement, issues are rising and rising and that is the great instances, and finally they overheat a bit of bit and that’s if you get inflation as a result of there’s simply an excessive amount of demand for the availability available in the market simply throughout all the financial system that creates inflation. Ultimately, the Fed will reply by rising rates of interest that can finally lead us right into a recession the place unemployment goes up. So you’ll be able to see the a part of the financial cycle the place there’s inflation and the a part of the financial cycle the place there’s job loss are sometimes on reverse sides, however given all types of advanced issues which might be occurring within the financial system, whether or not it’s AI or tariffs or the financial provide will increase we’ve had over the past couple of years, we’re seeing each on the identical time. And that is what we might name the danger of stagflation.
Stagflation is just about the worst financial scenario you will get. Some folks would say deflation is even worse, however stagflation is fairly unhealthy as a result of what you could have is rising value within the type of inflation and lowering spending energy as a result of persons are shedding their jobs, which is only a nightmare for the financial system. Now, I wish to be clear, we’re not in a stagflationary atmosphere proper now. Sure, the labor market has been getting worse. Unemployment fee has been going up, however we’re nonetheless traditionally talking, the labor market is doing properly. We’re at a 4.2% unemployment fee. That is superb. Secondly, inflation has gone up 4 months in a row, however it’s nonetheless at 3.1%, 3% inflation shouldn’t be nice. It’s not what we wish and it’s heading within the improper course proper now, however we have now to maintain issues in perspective. 3.1% inflation shouldn’t be an emergency in itself.
It feels actually tough proper now as a result of we’ve had actually excessive inflation now 4 or 5 years in a row. So the compounding impact of all these issues is unhealthy, don’t get me improper, however being in a scenario the place we have now a 4.1 4.2% unemployment fee and inflation at 3.1% shouldn’t be stagflation but. Why am I speaking about this? As a result of this stagflationary danger, these forces which might be usually not current on the identical time, the truth that they do exist on the identical time is why mortgage charges and the bond market aren’t shifting. Bond buyers are very involved about inflation. They don’t prefer it as a result of give it some thought, what’s a bond? You’re lending cash to the US authorities for a time period, and the bonds we’re speaking about are 10, 20, 30 12 months time durations and the yields on these, the curiosity that you just earn proper now are proper about 4%.
That’s a great way to protect wealth if the inflation fee is at 2% as a result of then you might be incomes a 2% actual yield, proper? You’re getting 4% inflation is consuming away 2%. So 4 minus two is 2% actual yield. Once I say actual, I imply inflation adjusted yield. However what occurs if inflation goes as much as 5%? Then your actual yield on bonds that you just purchase right this moment is detrimental. You’re incomes a 4% yield inflation’s at 5%. Meaning you’re incomes detrimental 1%. That’s not good. The entire level of shopping for a bond is that you just’re accepting a low return for stability and assurance that you just’re going to receives a commission. And so bond buyers tremendous involved about inflation regardless that it’s not uncontrolled, they don’t prefer it and so they don’t need this. However, they’re additionally fearful about recession, and the bond market is de facto reactive to recession danger as a result of the rationale once more, folks put money into bonds is for security and stability.
And so what occurs if you enter financial situations when there’s loads of danger, folks are inclined to take their cash out of different property, whether or not it’s the inventory market or cryptocurrency or actual property or their financial savings account, and so they put ’em in bonds and so they say, regardless that I’m solely going to earn a 2% actual return, that’s lower than the inventory market. Inventory market’s feeling sort of dangerous proper now, so I’m going to place my cash into bonds and simply be certain that I don’t lose cash for the following couple of years. I’ll be okay if I don’t take advantage of cash. And so these are these competing forces that we have now proper now. That is why the bond market shouldn’t be shifting, and it’s why I’ve been saying type of all 12 months that I don’t suppose mortgage charges are going to go down and why I believe via the top of 2025, they’re not prone to go down both.
It’s as a result of we don’t have a transparent sight but on which certainly one of this stuff goes to be the larger subject. So hopefully, given that you just type of perceive why mortgage charges aren’t shifting that a lot, why I don’t suppose they’re going to maneuver that a lot for the remainder of the 12 months except after all we get some large information concerning the labor market altering or cussed inflation. Now, I believe that’s unlikely to occur as a result of we’re already type of at first of November right here and issues are inclined to not change that a lot in the direction of the top of the 12 months, however it’s additionally extraordinarily unlikely to occur as a result of the federal government is shut down and we don’t even have the info about inflation and the labor market that we usually get. And so via the top of the 12 months, I believe it’s impossible that we see large adjustments, however we will do our personal analysis, we will look into personal knowledge, we will look into state knowledge to not less than get a way.
It’s not so good as having all the things that we usually have, however I’ve pulled collectively details about the labor market and about inflation to share with you in order that we will attempt to forecast what’s going to occur. We have to know what’s occurring. Let’s discuss concerning the labor market first. You’ve most likely seen within the final week specifically, there’s been loads of excessive profile layoffs. This week UPS mentioned that it’s going to chop or did lower 48,000 workers. That’s an insane quantity, 48,000 workers. On high of that, Amazon mentioned that they had been going to chop as much as 30,000 jobs and already did 14,000 layoffs. We’ve additionally seen different large corporations, meta intel all throughout the financial system. We’re seeing excessive profile layoffs, however does this imply that the labor market is definitely beginning to break? Once more, a bit of laborious to inform as a result of we’re not getting regular knowledge we get from the federal authorities, however we do get some personal knowledge.
So loads of personal corporations, payroll corporations will put collectively this knowledge and we nonetheless have state knowledge, which you’ll be able to type of extrapolate out. It isn’t good, however I do wish to share with you what’s occurring as a result of I do know persons are fearful about their jobs, they’re fearful concerning the labor market, and so I’m simply making an attempt to share with you what we do know even regardless of the federal government shutdown. So right here’s what we bought, a DP, which is a payroll firm. They all the time put out a month-to-month jobs report, and they also truly put out some knowledge just lately that reveals truly an enchancment within the hiring atmosphere over the past couple of weeks. All through October, they observe mainly a 4 week shifting common of adjustments unemployment, and over the past couple of weeks they’ve had constructive 10,000, 20,000 over the past two readings, whereas in September it was detrimental about the identical time.
So that’s comparatively constructive information. It’s not like bumper nice development, however when it was detrimental in September, that was a bit of extra regarding the truth that it’s turned constructive. That’s a constructive. We even have another estimates. Citibank put out a research and so they’re exhibiting that their estimate, once more, it’s an estimate as a result of we don’t have this federal authorities knowledge, is that the variety of People submitting for unemployment did enhance for the latest week in October, however simply from 220,000 to 232,000, you don’t wish to see that go up ever. However having it go from two 20 to 2 32, that’s like a standard fluctuation. These should not alarming ranges a lot, and I believe that is type of complicated, however I’ll simply clarify to you what I believe is happening right here. And really Jerome Powell mentioned this, not, I believe it was the earlier fed assembly.
He was saying, we’re within the no rent, no fireplace financial system, and if you dig into the info, that’s what you see loads of. We do have these excessive profile layoffs, however corporations are nonetheless hiring, however it’s not rising. It’s like a one in a single out sort of system proper now the place nobody’s investing into new workers or new applications, however as a result of loads of corporations are in actually good positions, company income are in any respect time highs. These corporations don’t have to make loads of layoffs. You see in loads of these situations, Amazon, for instance, or UPS, they’re simply doing this as a result of they’re shifting in the direction of automation. I believe UPS is making an attempt to maneuver in the direction of extra gig employees as an alternative of full-time workers. So it’s not like these corporations are shedding their income. They, for no matter cause, really feel like they’ll optimize their workforce or optimize their income or no matter these public corporations wish to do.
That’s what they’re doing, and it’s much less about dramatic emergency value reducing measures. That’s not less than what I’ve been seeing. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Chicago put out one other estimate too. They tried to place out an estimate of unemployment. They confirmed that it did enhance a whopping 0.01% from September to October. So mainly unchanged. They mentioned that their estimates went from 4.34% to 4.35%. They’re scientific about this stuff. For regular folks, meaning unchanged. So I believe the large factor is, regardless that these excessive profile layoffs proper now, the excellent news is that it’s not all unhealthy. We’re not seeing some large enhance in unemployment from AI or from company income declining that the opposites occur. Company income are doing very well proper now. So that’s comparatively excellent news, proper? Nobody desires the labor market to interrupt, however it is among the causes the Fed is being cautious about fee cuts as a result of once more, their job to manage unemployment, to manage inflation, in the event that they really feel the labor market is doing properly, they’re going to be much less aggressive about fee cuts.
I nonetheless suppose they’ll lower charges, however they’ll most likely do it slower. If the job market actually begins to tank, then they should lower charges even quicker. Now, I believe all of that is comparatively excellent news for proper now. In fact, issues can change sooner or later, however we have now restricted knowledge and what we will see of that restricted knowledge, it doesn’t appear as unhealthy because the headlines are making it out to be. And I’m inspired by that as a result of I admit it guys. I admit I’ve worry about AI and what it would do within the labor market. I type of have blended emotions about this truly. So on one hand, I’ve worry about that. However, I additionally suppose corporations are overcommitting to AI proper now. I take advantage of ai. I do know lots of people who do it may’t exchange most jobs but.
It may possibly help people who find themselves doing jobs. However the concept that proper now with the expertise as it’s that it’s going to wholesale exchange loads of completely different jobs, I believe is a bit of overblown. I believe over the following couple of years it’s positively going to do this. However my concern extra is that corporations are identical to if issues begin to go unhealthy, they’re going to be like, oh, we’re simply going to fireplace, lay off a bunch of individuals and rent. It’s all going to be with out an precise plan about that, and that’s one thing that worries me actually as a result of I don’t need folks to lose their jobs. Nevertheless it’s additionally a tough factor to repair. If AI actually does begin to come and take jobs from People, it’s not one thing that the Fed can repair. It’s not even actually one thing coverage can repair, proper?
As a result of it’s not like, oh, we’re going to go decrease charges 1%. All these corporations are like, ah, you recognize what? Neglect ai. I’m going to go rent a bunch of individuals. That’s not going to occur, proper? We’re simply in the course of a technological shift. It’s a disruptive time within the labor market. These items, they do stabilize. In all earlier situations the place folks had been scared concerning the phone or electrical energy or automation or the web or all of those various things. There’s a time of disruption. Then new jobs come out, and that’s what I anticipate largely will occur with ai. However there’s a time period the place there’s this disruption, and I fear about that. I believe we is likely to be in the course of that even when it hasn’t began but. In order that’s the labor market.
Let’s discuss rapidly about inflation too. We don’t have all the knowledge, however they really did name folks again into the Bureau of Labor Statistics to place out particularly the September CPI report as a result of this does have impacts on how social safety advantages and Medicare advantages and all these different advantages are calculated for subsequent 12 months. So that they actually wanted this one. So we do have the September CPI report, and what it confirmed was that inflation hit 3% final month. I’ve been making an attempt to say, I believe I’ve mentioned it for a 12 months or in order that I don’t suppose we’re out of the woods by way of inflation development and clearly not as a result of it’s gone up 4 months in a row. Once more, nothing tremendous alarming, however it had been taking place for a few years in a row. Now it’s up 4 months in a row. That’s one thing notable, I believe for us as actual property investing neighborhood.
The factor that it’s best to know is that the foremost factor that’s serving to total inflation come down is rents. Even after loads of the availability shock got here via and the cash printing and all of that, that contributed to our inflation again in 20 21, 20 22, even after that stuff had stopped. The CPI report was actually excessive for some time due to hire. Now, once we take a look at rents, which they name house owners equal rents, that’s how they observe it, which makes up almost one third of the CPI. The way in which they calculate that headline quantity is that they name ’em weighted baskets. So there’s these completely different classes, and hire is the largest class. It’s a 3rd of the entire thing is hire, and it truly, the truth that it’s been going up on the slowest fee is the appropriate strategy to say it, has truly actually helped the general CPI.
It’s truly estimated that with out that, it could’ve been 3.1% as an alternative of three%. In order that’s truly actually good. However what you see in inflation is there’s two classes, proper? There’s items and providers, items, stuff that you just purchase, providers or stuff you pay different folks to do. Items inflation is fairly variable. It may possibly go up, however then it may return down. You see this in gasoline, it goes up, then it comes down, electrical energy goes up, it goes down, use vehicles, they go up and down. Service inflation, if you pay another person to do one thing for you is way stickier. It goes up. It not often comes again down. The very last thing I wished to speak about with inflation is that inflation doesn’t occur the identical in all places. I believe that is sort of actually an attention-grabbing factor. Individuals simply see this high line quantity, however truly in numerous cities, it’s completely different.
And I truly pulled this up. The highest 20 cities for the best inflation. Primary metropolis for inflation is Denver, Colorado proper now. Quantity two is San Diego. We even have quantity three in Chicago, however issues are literally far and wide geographically. Phoenix, Arizona is up there, Washington, dc, Anchorage, Alaska. However the cause I’m bringing this up is as a result of inflation on a metropolis stage shouldn’t be going to influence mortgage charges for the bond market. That’s simply not likely the way it works. They’re going to take a look at that high line quantity. However for actual property buyers, I do suppose it issues as a result of if you see a metropolis like Denver, which is seeing excessive inflation and a struggling housing market and rental market, I take a look at that. I’m like, rents are going to maintain taking place whatever the provide drawback. However persons are maxed out.
You already are bumping up into affordability challenges, and cities like Denver persons are going to be paying extra for meals. They’re going to be paying extra for groceries or fuel or no matter it’s. It’s bought to return from someplace. And in a market the place there’s an extra of provide, it’s most likely going to return from hire. Persons are going to decide on cheaper residences or they’re going to barter tougher. And so that is simply one thing I need folks to be cognizant of. For those who’re in certainly one of these markets with actually excessive inflation and also you’re already seeing some declines, that most likely goes so as to add a bit of gas to that decline. In order that’s the inflation knowledge that we have now proper now. I believe total it’s okay. Truthfully, you don’t wish to see it going up, however the outlook stays actually unclear. On one hand, this previous week, president Trump went to China and met with Xi Jinping and so they had been firming it down, proper?
They’re already type of decreasing these loopy tariffs of one hundred percent, however they’re nonetheless excessive on our greatest buying and selling associate, so it’s sort of laborious to determine that out. We now have new tariffs on Canada. We bought 10% tariffs there, and the info additionally reveals that thus far corporations are consuming loads of tariffs, so customers aren’t paying one hundred percent of the influence. We’ll see if that shifts. Most of those large banks like Goldman Sachs and Deloitte and all these corporations that look into this suppose that it’s going to more and more get handed on to the patron. And so I do suppose we’ll most likely nonetheless see a better inflationary atmosphere, however hopefully it simply doesn’t get uncontrolled. To me, that’s what actually issues. It doesn’t hold going up each single month, or if it goes up a bit of bit the following couple months, that’s okay, however we will’t see it get uncontrolled if we wish mortgage charges to return down.
In order that brings us to our final query is simply the place do charges go from right here? Effectively, if inflation stays elevated however not uncontrolled like it’s now and the labor market is weak however not collapsing like now, I do suppose we get extra fee cuts. I believe we see two to 4 fee cuts within the subsequent 12 months that’s going to assist industrial actual property a very good deal. Nevertheless it doesn’t imply mortgage charges are going to return down that a lot. I believe they may come down. I believe it should assist push them down. However except there’s a giant recession, I don’t suppose we’re going to see large adjustments to mortgage charges. I believe there’ll be, I’m going to simply throw out 5.7, 5 to 6 and 1 / 4, six and a half within the subsequent 12 months or so. Hopefully we hit the decrease finish of that pattern.
That will be higher if we’re on the greater finish of that pattern. Six and 1 / 4, six and a half. If we keep the place we’re proper now, mortgage charges, I believe we’re in a troublesome 12 months for actual property subsequent 12 months, it’s going to be a sluggish market with modestly declining costs. That doesn’t imply it’s a foul time to purchase actual property. I simply suppose it’s going to be a sluggish sort of draggy market subsequent 12 months. Now, if the labor market breaks and we don’t have inflation, then charges are going to go down. That’s the scenario the place mortgage charges actually go down. If we see unemployment go up and inflation type of reasonable or go down, we’ll see mortgage charges decline most likely into the mid or even perhaps decrease fives, however there’s no proof that that’s taking place proper now. So I wouldn’t depend on that.
After which the other might occur. If the labor market stays nice, however inflation goes up, mortgage charges are going to return up. I do know everybody says that’s loopy, however even when the fed cuts charges in that atmosphere, mortgage charges are going again up. However I believe the purpose of that is that we don’t know, and in order for you a very good financial system, issues aren’t going to alter that a lot. The one means mortgage charges are actually going to go down is that if unemployment goes again up. Not a fantastic scenario, and so I actually simply hope that that is simply one other knowledge level in your thoughts that maybe it’s best to cease ready for charges to go down. So we’ve been speaking about all 12 months simply underwrite your offers with the way in which charges are right this moment. I truly simply did a complete episode on the BiggerPockets podcast about this.
You may test it out. It got here out on Friday, this episode in the marketplace. I actually simply went into the why, the info, the nerdy stuff, however if you wish to hear my ideas on find out how to put money into a better rate of interest atmosphere, I believe that’s the place we’re going to remain for some time. Try that present. However once more, I simply suppose hopefully what I’m making an attempt to elucidate to you and never simply let you know, charges are going up, charges are taking place. Individuals can scream that on social media. What I’m making an attempt to do on this episodes is assist you perceive why issues are taking place, as a result of then you’ll be able to interpret this for your self. As a result of folks in social media, all of them have these different motives. They’re making an attempt to promote you one thing. They’re making an attempt to persuade you of one thing. However should you truly perceive this for your self, then you’ll be able to discern what info, which opinions it’s best to truly take and take into consideration, and hopefully this background context into what’s taking place within the labor market and with inflation may help you just do that. That’s what we bought for you guys right this moment in the marketplace. Thanks all a lot for being right here. I’m Dave Meyer and we’ll see you on Thursday for an additional episode.
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