Mortgage buy software knowledge
Historically I don’t depend the info from final two weeks of the 12 months and first week of the brand new 12 months because of the holidays, so final week was the primary alternative to trace the acquisition software knowledge in 2026 and we began with a 16% week-to-week progress and a 13% year-over-year print.
It’s been scarce currently to get a double-double, however final week this knowledge line got here out swinging. These functions look out 30-90 days and we have to see a minimum of 12-14 weeks of optimistic week-to-week knowledge to get one thing significant. Up to now:
- 1 optimistic week-to-week print
- 0 destructive week-to-week prints
- 1 week of double-digit year-over-year progress
Weekly pending gross sales
Our weekly pending house gross sales present a week-to-week view of the info, although pending gross sales may be influenced by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Final week confirmed year-over-year and multi-year progress. Our weekly pending gross sales knowledge will usually be mirrored within the current house gross sales report 30-60 days after the pending gross sales. Final week was our highest weekly pending house gross sales knowledge in a few years.
Weekly pending gross sales for final week up to now few years:
- 2026: 50,096
- 2025: 44,866
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
Final week was an attention-grabbing one, because the 10-year yield closed at multi-month highs. However Friday’s motion within the bond market was essentially the most attention-grabbing half, because the 10-year yield rose after Trump mentioned he would love Kevin Hassett to stay in his job as head of the White Home Financial Council, which implies he gained’t be the subsequent Fed Chair. The bond market didn’t appear to love concept of the opposite frontrunner for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, taking the place and the 10-year yield closed the week at 4.23%. I’ve a hashtag going known as ‘By no means Warsh,’ so my view is obvious. My decide could be Christopher Waller, who continues to be within the working however much less probably than Warsh.
It is going to be attention-grabbing if bond yields maintain promoting off this week, or we simply fall again down and stick round this low-level channel that now we have been in since September, with the 10-year yield being largely between 4%-4.20%
Mortgage charges have been hovering on the low 6% degree since Trump’s announcement directing Fannie and Freddie to buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities, and we ended the week at 6.07%. There wasn’t a lot volatility in mortgage charges final week as they ranged between 6.01%-6.07% in line with Mortgage News Daily, and ended the week at 6.04% in line with the Polly mortgage fee lock knowledge in HousingWire’s Mortgage Rate Center.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads have been the perfect story for housing final 12 months, as mortgage charges wouldn’t have gotten towards 6% with out the development within the spreads, and that enchancment has continued in 2026, particularly after the president’s MBS announcement.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%. If as we speak’s spreads have been as unhealthy as they have been on the peak of 2023, mortgage charges could be 1.22% greater. Now that we’re nearer to regular, mortgage pricing can keep decrease for longer. That is actually stopping mortgage charges from heading again over 7% even when the labor knowledge improves — higher spreads restrict the injury of upper bond yields.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing stock was a really optimistic story in 2025, as stock grew and price-growth cooled, which helps affordability over time. Stock progress at one level final 12 months was 33% 12 months over 12 months, however as demand picked up within the second half of 2025, that progress fee cooled right down to 10%. 12 months-over-year comps are going to be more durable to indicate the identical kind of stock progress within the spring, however any progress is a wholesome final result for the housing market. Final week noticed 10.5% year-over-year progress.
- Weekly stock change: (Jan. 10-Jan. 17): Stock rose from 686,784 to 695,628
- Identical week final 12 months: (Jan. 11-Jan 18): Stock rose from 624,375 to 632,076
New listings knowledge
The objective for brand new listings in 2026 is not only to return to 80,000 new listings per week throughout the seasonal peak intervals, however to develop above 80,000 in some weeks. Final 12 months, I used to be excited that we acquired to 80,000, which is the low finish of regular new listings, as we usually vary between 80,000 and 100,000, however as soon as we hit that degree, we didn’t see a lot progress.
To present you one other perspective, throughout the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings have been hovering between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for a few years. Right here’s final week’s new listings knowledge over the previous two years:
- 2026: 50,303
- 2025: 45,835
Worth-cut share
In a typical 12 months, about one-third of houses expertise worth reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. Many householders alter their sale costs as stock ranges rise and mortgage charges stay elevated. For 2026, let’s see how the supply-and-demand equilibrium works when mortgage charges are close to 6%, not at 7% or greater, which is what the market needed to cope with from 2022-2025 at completely different factors.
The value-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Trump, Davos, Supreme Court docket and extra
On the financial aspect this week, we’re going to get the PCE inflation report, which is what the Fed tracks. This may be a tad hotter than the CPI report, which got here in decrease than estimates. Pending house gross sales will even come out, and final month’s report was a beat of estimates. Jobless claims knowledge, launched each week, stays traditionally low.
However possibly essentially the most attention-grabbing information this week can be on the political aspect and I might maintain a watch out on the bond market response to any information concerning the Fed. We’ve the Davos assembly this week, the place Trump goes to debate new housing coverage and probably identify the brand new Fed Chair. And on Wednesday the Supreme Court docket is scheduled to listen to the Lisa Prepare dinner case, which is able to decide if and when a president can hearth a Fed governor, so it’s a giant week for positive.
