Weekly pending gross sales
Pending dwelling gross sales knowledge supplies a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes will be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such because the giant winter storm in January. We had been displaying year-over-year progress at first of the yr, after which the snowstorm slowed issues down.
Now that every one the snow knowledge is gone, we’ve got three straight weeks of year-over-year progress, which ought to be the case provided that mortgage charges have been beneath 6.25% all yr lengthy.
Weekly pending gross sales final week over the past two years:
- 2026: 66,127
- 2025: 63,508
Mortgage buy utility knowledge
Buy utility knowledge is a forward-looking knowledge line: the expansion right here leads gross sales roughly 30-90 days out, and final week we noticed 10% year-over-year progress with 6.1% week-to-week progress.
For this knowledge line, what I actually worth is not less than 12-14 weeks of constructive weekly progress. If you will get this along with year-over-year progress, we’ve got one thing legit for certain. For 2026, each week has proven constructive year-over-year progress. The final three weeks, mixed, have averaged 10% year-over-year progress, which if this continues, ought to give us a pair hundred thousand extra dwelling gross sales this yr versus final yr.
As you may see within the chart beneath, we do have some seasonality within the weekly knowledge.
Right here’s 2026 thus far:
- 3 constructive week-over-week prints
- 4 destructive week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 5 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
- 8 weeks of constructive year-over-year progress
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
So what simply occurred final week? Oil costs went parabolic, and mortgage charges had been calm amid all of the Iran drama and the weak jobs report on Friday. Final week, my markers for the 10-year yield had been that bond merchants can be taking the Iran battle extra severely if the 10-year yield closed above 4.15% and noticed follow-through promoting in bonds. That didn’t occur as a result of the roles’ Friday report was a bust, and bond merchants reacted to it.
However relating to oil costs, my marker was that if costs obtained over $82, all hell might break free as a result of if we go larger than that, there isn’t a market sense of closure on the Iran state of affairs, and issues can worsen. Oil rose as excessive as $92 final week and will go even larger this week.
Final week noticed a 41.6-cent-per-gallon enhance in fuel costs, based on GasBuddy knowledge, which is among the many prime 10 largest weekly will increase in historical past. I peg this disaster to finish 11-14 days from now, as a result of if issues worsen with oil costs, Republicans threat shedding extra seats within the midterms.
Keep in mind, airline gasoline and diesel, which transport meals, can push the price of dwelling up larger within the quick time period. I will likely be stunned if this lasts greater than 14 days if oil costs are elevated and preserve rising. For now, the 10-year yield has largely behaved solely as a result of the roles knowledge was destructive.
Charges ended the week at 6.14%, based on Mortgage News Daily, and Polly’s mortgage rate lock data reveals a weekend fee of 6.14%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a constructive story for housing in 2026, lowering mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.
If spreads matched the 2023 peak ranges, mortgage charges can be 1.17 share factors larger, at 7.31%. With spreads returning to regular, mortgage pricing can stay decrease for longer than in earlier years.
Realistically, we solely have 20-34 foundation factors of enchancment left within the spreads. The longer that volatility is compressed, the higher spreads can get later within the yr, however the massive enchancment right here has already run its course.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing stock knowledge fell final week, which was a little bit of a shock. Hopefully, we are going to see the normal seasonal enhance in stock quickly. Stock is at a lot more healthy ranges now than a number of years in the past. Nonetheless, if stock doesn’t begin to develop quickly, we’d have some destructive year-over-year stock knowledge towards the top of March or early April.
Now we have gone from 33% year-over-year progress in stock on the highest level in 2025, to six.91% final week.
- Weekly stock change: (Feb. 27-March 6): Stock fell from 690,357 to 686,879
- Similar week final yr: (Feb. 28-March 7): Stock rose from 639,357 t0 642,479
New listings knowledge
New listings knowledge additionally confirmed a stable week-to-week enhance final week, whereas it’s nonetheless down yr over yr. We must always get new listings above 80,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak months, which might be on the low finish of the variety of new listings we might get in a traditional interval.
I’m hoping for the brand new listings knowledge to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak durations, because it did from 2013-2019. For context, in the course of the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings knowledge for the previous two years:
- 2026: 61,710
- 2025: 63,870
Value-cut share
Sometimes, about one-third of houses bear worth reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the proportion of worth cuts will increase.
Nonetheless, charges are close to multiyear lows, so we are actually seeing destructive year-over-year price-cut share knowledge. This is sensible provided that demand has picked up barely and stock progress has slowed. We’re beginning the seasonal shift larger within the price-cut knowledge, so the year-over-year knowledge will likely be key.
The value-cut share final week is now 1.25% decrease than this time final yr.
The value-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Iran, inflation, present dwelling gross sales and housing begins
To make myself clearer than ever: no present financial knowledge actually issues so long as this Iranian battle isn’t resolved. Oil costs can rise a lot larger. which suggests larger fuel costs, jet gasoline, and diesel costs, which may enhance meals costs. So, although we’ve got quite a lot of financial knowledge that will likely be launched this week, the Iran battle is extra vital.
Be aware that this present dwelling gross sales report popping out this week is the final report that can embody the snow influence. You possibly can ensure that, like clockwork, each rookie pretend housing knowledgeable within the U.S. who had no thought why present dwelling gross sales fell final month nonetheless received’t perceive why they’re low this month. However higher since you learn this Housing Market Tracker and take heed to the HousingWire Daily podcast! So, get your popcorn and watch the horrible takes this week on the info they don’t perceive, when you’re prepared to elucidate what’s actually occurring.
