Weekly pending gross sales
Pending house gross sales knowledge offers a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes might be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. The final 5 weeks have been optimistic in our weekly pending gross sales knowledge. We will see if that strikes ahead, particularly now that charges hit a yearly excessive and so they may proceed increased this week.
Weekly pending gross sales often take 30-60 days to hit the gross sales knowledge. Usually, mortgage charges above 6.64% and breaking over 7% actually affect the information. Underneath 6.25% is the place the candy spot has been previously a number of years, excluding short-term variables out of the equation.
Weekly pending gross sales final week over the past two years:
- 2026: 71,230
- 2025: 68,726
Mortgage buy utility knowledge
Buy utility knowledge is a forward-looking knowledge line: the expansion right here leads house gross sales roughly 30-90 days out, and last week we noticed 12% year-over-year progress with 1% week-to-week progress. Weekly progress cooled final week and this week we’re prone to a unfavourable weekly print. This does occur usually when you’ve got back-to-back weeks of rising charges.
For this knowledge line, what I actually worth is no less than 12-14 weeks of optimistic weekly progress. If you may get this alongside year-over-year progress, we have now one thing legit, for certain. For 2026, each week has proven optimistic year-over-year progress. The week-to-week knowledge has been optimistic; nonetheless, that’s a lot simpler to do with charges below 6.25%.
Right here’s 2026 up to now:
- 5 optimistic week-over-week prints
- 4 unfavourable week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
- 10 weeks of optimistic year-over-year progress
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the Iran battle began, I talked about how I might be shocked if it continued previous March 21 due to the financial implications of battle, together with increased vitality and enter prices. Friday, March 20, the bond market took the battle extra significantly and, for the primary time since September of 2025, the 10-year yield closed above 4.31%. The bond market has now priced out all fee cuts and is now pricing in a rate hike in 2026.
This week is essential to me as a result of we now have a transparent pathway to the 10-year yield hitting 4.60% — the excessive finish of my forecast. If this battle continues and worsens, bond yields will rise and extra fee hikes shall be priced in.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a positive story for housing in 2026, lowering mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges. Mortgage spreads received barely worse when bond yields have been falling in February, because the spreads have been attempting to make mortgage charges much less unstable with falling yields. Now they’ve gotten worse with this battle as nicely.
For now, the spreads are nonetheless very optimistic, however their enchancment is the one factor preserving charges from being over 7% once more.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.97%. Once more, Friday’s single-day unfold will not be accounted for on this weekly knowledge.
Nevertheless, I wished to point out this week’s charges relative to the worst ranges of the spreads over the previous three years, with the 10-year yield at its present stage.
- If we had the worst ranges of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage charges can be 7.67% immediately, not 6.53%
- If we had the worst ranges of 2024, mortgage charges can be 7.29% immediately.
- If we had the worst ranges of 2025, mortgage charges can be 7.10% immediately.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing inventory ought to now be beginning its annual seasonal enhance. Nevertheless, the expansion fee of stock has actually slowed from final yr’s peak ranges, to the purpose that we’d see some unfavourable year-over-year prints in our weekly stock. Nonetheless, we’re nonetheless removed from the unhealthy ranges of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
We’ve gone from 33% year-over-year progress in stock on the highest level in 2025, to six.35% final week. Prior to now, stock progress picked up amid increased charges, softening demand and rising year-over-year new listings. New listings knowledge remains to be unfavourable yr over yr, however for this week, it’s a superb begin to the spring seasonal enhance.
- Weekly stock change: (March 13-March 20): Stock rose from 697,251 to 705,633
- Similar week final yr: (March 14-March 21): Stock rose from 655,625 to 668,155
New listings knowledge
New listings knowledge has additionally been barely disappointing this yr. Whereas I nonetheless consider we will get a number of weeks over 80,000, the year-over-year progress fee has been barely unfavourable for weeks now.
I’m nonetheless hoping for the brand new listings knowledge to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak intervals, because it did from 2013-2019. For context, in the course of the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings knowledge for the previous two years:
- 2026: 68,016
- 2025: 69,701
Value-cut proportion
Usually, about one-third of properties endure value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the share of value cuts will increase.
In my 2026 value forecast, I had a unfavourable 0.62% name for the yr nationally.
Nevertheless, mortgage charges have been decrease than I believed they might be at first of the yr and the FHFA’s introduced purchase of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads decrease than I anticipated. I believed we’d see that enchancment afterward within the yr. So, earlier than the battle began, my forecast appeared fallacious for 2026. Now, if charges head increased and keep increased for longer, I do have a shot at my name being extra right. Nonetheless, the worth minimize proportion is beneath final yr at the moment.
The worth-cut proportion for final week:
The week forward: Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran
Nothing issues this coming week however Iran. Final week we broke a key stage on the 10-year and your complete calendar yr is now being formed by increased charges, increased inflation and no fee cuts. In actual fact, fee hikes at the moment are again within the dialogue for 2026. If this battle will get worse, we will get extra fee hikes priced in for 2026, and no Fed member will discuss fee cuts until we go right into a hardcore recession. So for now, the Iran battle is shaping what the remainder of 2026 will appear to be for the financial system and the housing market.
