Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing inventory is predicted to set a seasonal low someday early in 2026, hopefully sooner fairly than later. We don’t need what occurred in 2023, when the seasonal backside got here in April. We might need the seasonal backside to occur in February: extra provide means much less value progress and higher affordability.
Nonetheless, since mid-June, the stock progress has slowed considerably, and mortgage charges are at 3-year lows. When mortgage charges fall under 6.64% and head towards 6%, housing demand improves. In 2026, we must always see decrease charges for longer versus earlier years, which may hold a lid on stock progress in 2026.
- Weekly stock change: (Jan. 3-Jan. 10): Stock fell from 720,102 to 686,784
- Similar week final yr: (Jan. 4 -Jan 11 ): Stock fell from 635,384 to 624,375
New listings knowledge
The purpose for brand spanking new listings in 2026 is not only to return to 80,000 new listings per week throughout the seasonal peak durations, however to develop above 80,000 in some weeks. Final yr, I used to be excited that we received to 80,000, which is the low finish of regular new listings, as we sometimes vary between 80,000-10,000, however as soon as we hit that degree, we didn’t see a lot progress.
To offer you one other perspective, throughout the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings have been hovering between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for a few years. Right here’s final week’s new listings knowledge over the previous two years:
- 2026: 39,007
- 2025: 44,639
Value-cut share
In a typical yr, about one-third of houses expertise value reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. Many owners alter their gross sales value as stock ranges rise and mortgage charges keep elevated. For 2026, let’s see how the provision and demand equilibrium works when mortgage charges are close to 6%, not at 7% or larger, because the market has needed to take care of from 2022-2025 at completely different factors.
For 2026, the HousingWire forecast is for a -0.62% decline in nominal house costs nationally, based mostly on one other yr of stock progress much like final yr. And if the labor knowledge improves, charges can transfer as much as the higher vary of my forecast. Nonetheless, if stock progress slows and charges stay 6.25% or decrease, that forecast is probably incorrect as pricing has proved to agency upwards over the previous few years when charges are close to 6% with restricted stock progress.
The one main distinction this yr versus the previous few years is that the stock scarcity story is over, which means provide isn’t going to be the large driver of costs. The demand aspect would wish to play an even bigger position within the story in 2026 for costs to maintain rising. Right here’s the price-cut share for final week over the past a number of years:
Mortgage charges and the 10-year yield
Within the HousingWire 2026 forecast, I anticipate the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75%-6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
The HousingWire 2026 forecast doesn’t embody a 7-handle, as labor data softened in 2025 and mortgage spreads are virtually again to regular. With many fee cuts within the system now, the best way to get again towards the 4.40%-4.60% vary on the 10-year yield is that if the labor knowledge begins to enhance — in different phrases, larger job progress numbers, decrease unemployment fee, and wage progress selecting up because the Fed makes an attempt to sound hawkish. In fact, lots will change with a brand new Fed Chairman and doable new Fed governors.
Final week was jobs week, however not a lot occurred with the 10-year yield, because it’s been in a slim channel for months now. As you’ll be able to see within the chart under, it’s attempting to interrupt above 4.20% degree, with no luck. The one X variable for 2026 is that if jobless claims begin to rise towards 323,000 — the 10-year yield at 3.80% will break, and mortgage charges will simply break below 5.75% at that time. Mortgage charges briefly dipped to five.99% on Friday, solely due to a historic day on mortgage spreads. They later gave up on that transfer, however charges ended the week at 6.06%.
Mortgage spreads
Final week was very wild; mortgage spreads virtually returned to their regular historic vary on Friday after President Trump introduced on Thursday that he needs $200 billion more in mortgage-backed safety purchases. This created a wild 24 hours of buying and selling in these securities, leading to an abnormally excessive drop in spreads on Friday.
Mortgage spreads have been the unsung hero for housing in 2025, and 2026 seems to be to be one other yr of a optimistic unfold story. Traditionally, regular spreads have been between 1.60% and 1.80%. In 2023, they received as excessive as 3.11%. However since then, when the Fed stated it was completed mountain climbing charges, spreads have been enhancing, as they sometimes do at this stage of the cycle.
We are going to monitor this optimistic story on daily basis for 2026 as a result of if spreads have been as dangerous as they have been in 2023, charges could be over 7% in the present day, not close to 6%. If the spreads enhance to decrease than 1.60% — which wasn’t on my radar for this yr — that can be nothing however a optimistic story for housing this yr.
Mortgage buy software knowledge
Staying true to my perception that weekly housing knowledge must be taken with a grain of salt over the past two weeks of the yr and the primary week of the brand new yr, I’m going to attend another week earlier than we begin monitoring the standard buy software knowledge. This era is just too closely impacted by the vacations. We noticed 10% year-over-year progress final week, however we ought to be skeptical of that quantity. The year-over-year comps can be a lot tougher in 2026, because the extraordinarily low bar we had final yr is over with.
Complete weekly pending house gross sales
The identical end-of-the-year seasonal elements apply to our weekly and complete weekly pending house gross sales. We’re displaying year-over-year progress right here, and the tracker can be in full pressure subsequent week with our weekly demand knowledge.
- 2026: 256,837
- 2025: 252,259
The week forward: Headlines, plus new house gross sales, retail gross sales and Fed speeches
Thus far, 2026 has seen a flurry of headlines, and a few of them have already impacted housing; count on extra to come back. We have now loads of knowledge this week, together with new house gross sales, retail gross sales, and PPI inflation, plus Fed speeches.
With mortgage spreads near regular, it will likely be key each week to see how the 10-year yield and bond markets react to financial knowledge, however 2026 would be the first yr in a few years with close-to-normal spreads and lots of fee cuts already within the system.
