We’re excited to announce that Jonathan Miller, who has lengthy authored probably the most authoritative report on the residential actual property market, is partnering with The Actual Deal. Beneath, you’ll discover his Housing Notes column, which can now run on our website a number of occasions per week. As well as, Miller’s quarterly report for New York Metropolis, which he printed by means of Douglas Elliman for greater than three a long time, will now be “The Actual Deal report, ready by Jonathan Miller.” Miller’s knowledge enterprise, Streetmatrix, which offers hyperlocal knowledge, will present statistics to TRD Information subscribers.
— TRD editors
The social media submit that began it
About three weeks in the past, the NYC mayor introduced, at the side of New York Governor Kathy Hochul, one other try at a pied-à-terre tax to shore up the funds deficit. I wrote a critical piece about this tax, focusing on its unlikely implementation rather than its underlying idea. In the NYC mayor’s video announcing the pied-a-terre tax, he mentions Ken Griffin’s all-time record US home purchase price of $238,000,000 at 220 Central Park South, whereas standing in entrance of the constructing. That’s the place the true property trade’s harsh criticism of the pied-a-terre tax actually started. The governor has already announced the new budget, with the proposed pied-a-terre tax embedded, regardless that we actually don’t know how it’s being carried out.
By the way, Griffin’s 4-story apartment is just not a penthouse, neither is it on prime of the constructing because the mayor and most of the people assume. The building is a 70-story tower, and Griffin is positioned about 20 flooring under the highest. The perfect park views are typically mid-building, like his, capturing views of Central Park’s greenery from contained in the unit.
A whiny response to criticism born drom a Ok-shaped restoration
There’s a wonderful Bloomberg article, “U.S. wage growth is increasingly K-shaped with largest divide since 2015,” which helps us perceive the frustration increase on the disproportionate earnings progress the rich have over the rest. It’s fairly pronounced.
Being insulated from the day-to-day stress of nominal wage progress over an prolonged time frame, any criticism of the fruits of that success, mixed with a long time of being served with most adulation (a byproduct of society’s present extreme billionaire worship), I can perceive the private affront one would possibly really feel proudly owning the most costly house within the U.S. and being criticized for it. Consequently, Ken Griffin confirmed that he can whine as a lot as mere mortals somewhat than be above it. That’s his proper, however I don’t assume the NYC mayor used logic of getting private in his social media effort. However the diploma of Griffin’s whining was surprising. Whereas I very a lot admire what Griffin has achieved and that he needs to be rewarded for being revolutionary, sensible and intelligent (I pay attention carefully to his financial insights), his response to the mayor’s video clearly wasn’t in regards to the pied-à-terre tax. It was about being singled out for buying the most expensive home in U.S. history, which has been exhaustively explored since he closed in 2019. I assumed it was a nasty search for him to speak about pivoting to Miami, which he already did the final time the pied-à-terre tax got here up in 2019. Nonetheless, I’ve little doubt he meant it when he stated it.
I’m keen to guess that if Mandami hadn’t made a video with Griffin’s apartment as the centerpiece, there wouldn’t have been the backlash from the true property trade, inaccurately assuming the wealthy are going to flee town, just like the silly arguments made during the mayor’s election run. Nonetheless, I can perceive the trade’s level of concern. NYC is at the moment the true property efficiency outlier within the U.S., and the rich as a market phase has made the clear distinction on this market, one thing in regards to the golden goose. Going ahead, the mayor must be extra aware of the place the cash is coming from for tax income, one thing about biting the hand that feeds you.
Griffin subsequently urged he would possibly withdraw from a deliberate $6 billion workplace mission at 350 Park Avenue in response to that one-minute YouTube video that recognized him as the client of the most expensive home in U.S. history. As a monetary trade chief, this determination appears unusual, nearly brand-damaging to him as a titan of his trade. Shopping for the most expensive home in U.S. history is an consideration magnet, good or unhealthy. He’s been within the headlines for years over his record-setting full-retail residential real estate purchases.
Whereas each traditionally low, the homicide fee in Miami is double NYC
Griffin is already leaving his Chicago enterprise roots, after criticizing Illinois and Chicago leaders for years over crime coverage, taxes, pensions and governance, saying these insurance policies have been unwinding prior progress and making it “ever tougher” to keep up Chicago as Citadel’s HQ. The homicide fee per capita in Chicago is greater than 4X the speed of NYC, however Miami’s fee is greater than double NYC. The newest risk to maneuver is just not about security.
Griffin stated he was involved about his security in NYC, referring to the murder of a United Healthcare CEO in Midtown in 2024. I get it. However I counsel these security issues ought to have begun on the day he purchased the most expensive home in U.S. history. The mega sale appears to be talked about almost daily ever since, so it’s most likely had extra eyeballs on his $238 million house, greater than any house in U.S. historical past earlier than the mayor’s one-minute video.
Griffin has framed Miami and Florida as offering “traditional values,” higher governance and a extra optimistic setting for entrepreneurs. By the way, the NYC financial services talent pool is 6x that of Miami. I think the expertise pool is the explanation why Griffin has been bullish on NYC primarily based on his actions regardless of his latest risk to go away.
I assumed I’d point out that the homicide fee per capita in New York Metropolis was 1.6 within the first half of 2025 whereas Miami* was greater than double at 3.4. Each charges are traditionally low, so security doesn’t appear to be a rational purpose for a critical NYC exit determination both. For extra reference, the homicide fee per capita calculation in Chicago was 7 throughout the identical interval.
*Miami homicide fee per 100,000≈(16 homicides /0.45–0.50 million individuals)×100,000rate≈0.45–0.50 million people16 homicides×100,000.
No, it’s not as unhealthy as systematic racism
Steven Roth, the once-billionaire (primarily based on his inventory worth) behind Vornado Realty Belief, developed 220 Central Park South, the event the place Ken Griffin purchased the most expensive second or primary home in U.S. history. On his firm’s Could 6, 2026, earnings name, Roth in contrast the phrase “tax the rich,” the message of the NYC mayor’s one-minute YouTube video, to racial slurs and antisemitic language. His comparison was highly criticized because it really trivialized the weight of racial discrimination by equating financial coverage rhetoric with systemic oppression. How insulated from the true world are you able to be? I think Roth felt the necessity to get up for his key investor at 350 Park Avenue. Steven Roth’s Vornado and Ken Griffin’s Citadel are companions within the massive three way partnership redevelopment (with the Rudin household) that I discussed earlier. However this more moderen Bisnow headline is fascinating: Ken Griffin: Citadel NYC Tower ‘Probably’ Going Ahead Despite Mamdani Video.
The billionaire class doesn’t care about taxes as a lot as you assume
On the property aspect, the very rich typically profit from New York’s skewed property tax system: luxurious condos in new towers could be assessed at a fraction of market worth, and packages like 421a traditionally let some 9‑determine flats carry surprisingly low annual tax payments. Which means a billionaire in a $200 million+ Midtown penthouse pays a tiny efficient property tax fee, whereas renters in abnormal buildings not directly shoulder a bigger share of the property tax burden by means of their lease.
A pal informed me lately that they had a gathering with a billionaire embedded in NYC, and, on the subject of the pied-a-terre tax, indicated that they don’t care as a lot about these forms of taxes because the media protection suggests. I’ve heard this over and over from the rich in non-public sittings over my profession. The reason being the plentiful sources resembling expertise, that NYC offers to assist titans of trade thrive to construct their companies.
Richard Florida, the father of new urbanism, lately wrote a wonderful piece on this very subject for The Atlantic: The One Tax The Rich Can’t Escape: New York’s proposed pied-à-terre tax is unlikely to chase anybody away.
Right here’s his key message:
The very loud tales a few handful of tech bros fleeing California for Florida over the proposed wealth tax describe a small, unusually vocal slice of the billionaire class, not the entire group. Solely six of the 246 billionaires in California left to avoid the proposed wealth tax. I’m certain the precise quantity is a bit larger and the loss is clearly damaging to the state’s coffers. The repetitive protection of the standard solid of billionaire bros, resembling Musk, Brin and Zuckerberg, diverts consideration from what is definitely taking place.
Ultimate ideas
NYC’s revived pied-à-terre tax on $5 million+ second properties has change into a flashpoint much less for its mechanics than for Mayor Mamdani’s determination to highlight Ken Griffin’s $238 million apartment in a social media video, triggering an emotional backlash from Griffin and the true property trade regardless of NYC’s comparatively sturdy security metrics and financial fundamentals. It was private. The episode underscores a broader Ok‑formed restoration by which the rich have seen outsized good points whereas nonetheless benefiting from New York’s skewed property tax system and legacy abatements, whilst many billionaires stay anchored within the metropolis for its deep expertise pool, suggesting a narrowly focused pied-à-terre levy is unlikely to unleash a mass exodus.
Whereas the zeitgeist is slowly shifting in opposition to years of billionaire worship, they’re nonetheless desperately wanted as NYC taxpayers. I hope the NYC mayor remembers that.
The precise ultimate thought — Right here’s how the NYC pied-à-terre tax seems to those that proceed to assault town.
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