Weekly pending gross sales
Pending dwelling gross sales information present a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes will be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such because the recent winter storm that hit the nation. I used to be anticipating a small bounce final week and we have been only a tad increased than what I used to be on the lookout for. Quickly, the winter impact will totally fade from the housing information. Our weekly pending gross sales information falls into the month-to-month gross sales information 30-60 days out.
For these asking in regards to the latest existing home sales report that missed gross sales estimates, this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast goes into the the reason why, and it truly wasn’t in regards to the climate as a lot because it was the vacation influence.
Weekly pending gross sales final week over the past two years:
- 2026: 59,469
- 2025: 60,316
Be aware: Earlier than the snowstorm hit, all of the forward-looking information strains have been optimistic yr over yr, so I consider we’re nearly executed with all of the snow impairment. For instance, our complete pending dwelling gross sales information, which is much less unstable, has proven year-over-year progress each week this yr.
Mortgage buy software information
Purchase software information is the place I consider we have been hit hardest by the snowstorm. Though we haven’t seen a single week of adverse year-over-year information in 2026, the week-to-week outcomes took successful two weeks in the past, and we noticed a light decline final week. What I wish to see is about 12-14 weeks of optimistic week-to-week information, and earlier than the snowstorm hit the U.S., we had the most effective begin to the yr in a few years.
These purposes usually lag gross sales information by 30 to 90 days. Right here’s 2026 up to now:
- 2 optimistic week-over-week outcomes
- 2 adverse week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
- 5 weeks of optimistic yr over yr progress
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
We lastly had some motion with the 10-year yield final week. Even with the optimistic headline jobs report, the bond market wasn’t actually shopping for the stronger headline jobs information, and we closed the week on the lows Friday round 4.05%, so not that removed from the bottom ranges of the forecast at 3.80%. The CPI inflation report was tame sufficient to assist the 10-year yield fall extra on Friday. At one level this final week, we have been at 4.25%, so a giant transfer in yields this final week.
Charges ended the week decrease at 6.04%, in accordance with Mortgage News Daily, and mortgage rate lock data from Polly exhibits a weekend charge of 6.07%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a optimistic story for housing in 2026, decreasing mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges. Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.91%. If spreads matched the 2023 peak ranges, mortgage charges could be 1.20 proportion factors increased, at 7.24%. With spreads returning to regular, mortgage pricing can stay decrease for longer than in earlier years.
Weekly housing stock information
Housing stock grew barely week to week. In a couple of weeks, we’re about to see the spring seasonal rise in stock, which may be very regular if it occurs late February or early March; previous March isn’t story for stock progress. Nonetheless, I consider we must always develop inside that timeframe. The expansion charge of stock has cooled considerably since charges fell, nevertheless it stays at multiyear highs to maintain pricing in test. We have now gone from 33% year-over-year progress to only 8.24% final week.
- Weekly stock change: (Feb. 6-Feb. 13): Stock rose from 687,697 to 690,547
- Similar week final yr: (Feb. 7-Feb. 14): Stock rose from 632,325 to 637,984
New listings information
New listings information had a pleasant rebound final week. I consider that is as a result of snow information fading out of the information pool, with the information nonetheless barely adverse yr over yr, which I additionally blame on the snowstorm; we have been optimistic yr over yr on most experiences earlier than the snowstorm hit us. I hope for the brand new listings information to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak durations, because it did from 2013-2019. For context, in the course of the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings information for the previous two years:
- 2026: 54,234
- 2025: 56,558
Value-cut proportion
Usually, about one-third of properties bear value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the proportion of value cuts will increase. Nonetheless, charges are close to multiyear lows, so after a really very long time, we at the moment are seeing adverse year-over-year price-cut proportion information. This shouldn’t be shocking on condition that demand has picked up barely and stock progress has slowed. This week, we’re nearly 1% decrease than final yr presently.
The value-cut proportion for final week:
The week forward: Housing information, Fed speeches and inflation
We’ll get a sequence of housing experiences this week, together with pending dwelling gross sales, which I consider will present the snow influence, in addition to new dwelling gross sales, housing begins and the builders’ confidence information. We will even have extra Federal Reserve speeches and inflation information. It is going to be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the 10-year yield exams the lows we noticed final yr and whether or not it holds the road after the sharp decline in yields final week. We’re very near the underside forecast in mortgage charges and the 10-year yield, so this will probably be attention-grabbing week with the bond market.
