Eric Finnigan – vice chairman of demographics analysis at JBRC — opened the webinar with information on immigration within the U.S. for the reason that Trump administration took energy final 12 months.
“The (Dallas Federal Reserve) truly estimated that there’s extra unauthorized immigrants leaving the nation every month than transferring in,” he mentioned. “That’s fairly uncommon by the 12 months. We additionally have been monitoring coverage shifts that have been proscribing authorized channels of immigration, so decreasing the variety of people coming into the nation.”
A brand new $100,000 payment utilized to firms submitting H-1B purposes has led to an 87% drop in purposes from a 12 months in the past, in accordance with a courtroom submitting cited by Finnigan.
Finnigan mentioned 2025 immigration fell 82% year-over-year, the bottom stage for the reason that mid-80s.
“What I can say right here is we forecast this for our shoppers, going out 10 years, and what which means for housing demand or hire and on the market,” he mentioned. “So, I’m not going to share any forecast right here. We reserve all that for our shoppers. However I can say plan for 2026 to be even decrease than 2025.”
The impact on housing is already evident.
A JBRC survey of homebuilders performed in mid-March discovered 41% nationwide with gross sales and purchaser visitors negatively impacted by immigration coverage shifts.
Regional variation was stark — with 80% of Northwest builders reporting adverse impacts.
Within the rental market, two-thirds of condominium builders and traders in Florida reported impacts from immigration enforcement.
The resale market additionally felt the pressure. From a June 2025 survey, Finnigan famous {that a} quarter of agents nationally noticed overseas consumers pull again in the course of the spring promoting season.
“It’s not all of what drove the weak spring promoting season final 12 months, however is an enormous half, particularly in case you have a look at the slower markets,” he mentioned. “It’s the Northwest, Southwest and California.”
Home migration cools — even in Solar Belt
With immigration and birth rates falling, home internet migration has turn out to be a major supply of inhabitants development for many metro areas.
However even that engine is slowing.
“People are nonetheless transferring to the south and west. The Solar Belt continues to be attracting many of the relocating households right this moment,” Finnigan mentioned. “However evaluating 2019 to 2025, the home migration enhance to native housing demand, in case you take the common of all the highest markets, it’s about half of what it was earlier than the pandemic.”
Some markets that when thrived on migration have cooled.
Florida — which ranked because the fastest-growing state in 2021 — noticed home internet migration flip briefly adverse in 2024 and stay weak in 2025.
But inside the state, Ocala emerged because the fastest-growing metro space final 12 months, in accordance with JBRC information.
“If we’re development in Florida and projecting development in Florida, we will’t use the identical development charge in Tampa that we use in Ocala,” Finnigan mentioned.
Midwest markets are starting to warmth up as affordability attracts households from pricier coastal areas.
Younger households are more and more transferring from high-cost areas alongside the coasts and Northeast into Texas and the South, Finnegan added.
“[The Midwest] didn’t see the massive run ups in worth appreciation in 2021 to 2023 that quite a lot of the massive Solar Belt markets noticed,” he mentioned. “After which for the comparatively steady, we see among the stalwarts right here — the Atlantas, the Dallas and the Nashvilles of the world. You will have Riverside, California.
“Some markets have flipped from constructive earlier than the pandemic to now adverse; central New Jersey, some Florida markets.”
Shopper confidence takes successful
Maegan Sherlock — supervisor of shopper analysis at JBRC — detailed how economic uncertainty has turn out to be a major impediment for housing transactions.
Half of customers surveyed at present suppose the financial system is in recession — up from 37% in June 2025.
“Half of customers are pessimistic concerning the trajectory of the U.S. financial system over the approaching 12 months, and that’s the very best share in our survey’s historical past,” Sherlock mentioned. “Half of customers additionally suppose we’re in a recession. However regardless of what some headlines would possibly recommend or not, we’re not at present in a recession.
“When requested why they suppose we’re in a recession, it comes right down to quite a lot of customers feeling actually pinched — considering that costs for items and companies simply they really feel too excessive.”
That shopper mindset is resulting in tentative spending — with practically half saying it’s a foul time to purchase a house.
“Whereas they could be transferring ahead with huge spending choices, they’re doing so in a extra measured mindset, and that finally interprets into slower decision-making timelines,” mentioned Sherlock.
Worry of overpaying tops the listing of stressors for potential consumers. Amongst householders, 1 / 4 are ready for mortgage charges to say no earlier than buying. Amongst renters, greater than half are saving for a down fee.
Financial uncertainty is the second-most-common issue holding each teams again, and Sherlock mentioned its affect has “worsened considerably” since December of final 12 months.
‘Dream residence’ advertising and marketing, long-term outlook
The idea of the “dream residence” is shifting — and in some instances disappearing — for customers dealing with affordability constraints, the presentation confirmed.
Thirty-five % of younger singles and {couples} and roughly 40% of households report that their definition of a dream residence has modified on account of present housing market circumstances, Sherlock mentioned.
“Particularly for a lot of younger customers, affordability is their major concern,” she mentioned. “Many really feel that reaching homeownership is actually troublesome and are downsizing their expectations accordingly to match that actuality.
“This usually means much less house, fewer options, perhaps a willingness to compromise a little bit bit extra, whether or not that’s on location or the type of the house, simply with a view to purchase.” Greater than 60% of potential consumers mentioned they’re prepared to compromise on these parts.
Advertising and marketing language should evolve accordingly, Sherlock mentioned.
She confused that customers are tuning out idealized messaging — with half of respondents score phrases like “dream residence” and “luxurious residing” as overused and drained.
“Shoppers are responding to not aspiration, however to proof {that a} message, and extra importantly, the product itself, the house, was designed with their constraints and priorities in thoughts,” Sherlock mentioned. “On the finish of the day, we anticipate this development may be very prone to proceed, simply given the excessive pricing, high-interest charge surroundings that we’re in.
She cited Taylor Morrison’s “Properties Constructed for Actual Life” marketing campaign for instance of veering away from aspirational advertising and marketing towards sensible, “context-aware” messaging.
Regardless of near-term headwinds, Finnigan supplied a cautiously optimistic long-term view for the housing market.
Societal shifts — together with younger adults delaying family formation and marriage — have suppressed family development for years however may reverse.
“What the information reveals is that these 25-year-olds that select to maneuver again in with mother and father, they’re not caught there eternally,” Finnigan mentioned. “By the point they hit 35, 90% of those people have moved out on their very own.”
He famous that the most important inhabitants group right this moment is ages 32 to 38 — the prime first-time homebuying demographic.
“[It will be a] huge elevate on first-time homebuying demand within the subsequent handful of years,” Finnigan mentioned.
