Mortgage buy software knowledge
Purchase application data had one other constructive week, each on a weekly and yearly foundation. The primary aim with this knowledge set is to realize not less than 12-14 weeks of week-to-week features, and to this point, the yr is heading in that course. Final week, we noticed 5% week-over-week progress and 18% year-over-year progress. In 2026, the extraordinarily low threshold for year-over-year progress on this index is now gone, so it’s considerably stunning that we’ve reported double-digit year-over-year progress for each weeks.
These purposes sometimes lead gross sales knowledge by 30 to 90 days. Right here’s 2026 to this point:
- 2 constructive week-over-week outcomes
- 0 adverse week-to-week prints
- 2 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
Weekly pending gross sales
Weekly pending dwelling gross sales provide a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes could be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Final week as soon as once more confirmed constructive week-to-week and year-over-year progress. These figures are sometimes mirrored within the present dwelling gross sales report 30 to 60 days after pending gross sales are recorded. Final week marked the best weekly pending gross sales in a number of years.
Weekly pending gross sales for the final week up to now few years:
- 2026: 56,252
- 2025: 52,165
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
Final week, world occasions equivalent to the worldwide summit in Davos and vital volatility in Japan’s bond market impacted monetary markets. The U.S. and Japan mentioned an intervention plan to assist the yen, which reveals you ways a lot drama we had within the bond markets final week.
Mortgage charges rose from 6.07% to six.21%, ending the week at 6.19% in response to Mortgage News Daily. Contemplating the occasions that occurred final week, not too dangerous. Mortgage rate lock data from Polly reveals a weekend charge of 6.23%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage charges have remained secure partly as a result of mortgage spreads have improved considerably, particularly early this yr. At the moment final yr, related bond market circumstances would have resulted in charges of 6.30% to six.40%, however improved spreads have helped restrict charge will increase.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.82%. If spreads matched the 2023 peak ranges, mortgage charges can be 1.29% larger, at 7.48%. With spreads returning to regular, mortgage pricing can stay decrease for longer than in earlier years.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing stock has proven constructive traits because the market strikes towards normalization. Nevertheless, since mid-June 2025, the stock progress charge has slowed from 33% to 9.81% yr over yr. With more difficult year-over-year comparisons this spring, related progress charges are unlikely in 2026. Nevertheless, so long as we’re rising yr over yr from the place we’re at this time, as an alternative of the place we have been in early 2022, it’s a plus.
- Weekly stock change: (Jan. 16-Jan. 23): Stock rose from 695,628 to 697,868
- Identical week final yr: (Jan. 17-Jan 24): Stock rose from 632,076 to 635,529
New listings knowledge
New listings knowledge for 2026 has been encouraging. The aim isn’t solely to achieve 80,000 new listings per week throughout peak durations, but additionally to exceed this quantity in some weeks. Final yr, reaching 80,000 marked the low finish of the standard vary of 80,000 to 100,000, however progress stalled after that.
For context, in the course of the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years. Right here is final week’s new listings knowledge for the previous two years:
- 2026: 53,920
- 2025: 50,946
Worth-cut share
Usually, about one-third of properties bear worth reductions, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. Many householders regulate sale costs as stock will increase and mortgage charges stay elevated. In 2026, it is going to be necessary to look at how provide and demand reply to mortgage charges close to 6%, quite than the 7% or larger charges seen from 2022 to 2025.
The value-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Fed week, dwelling costs, and inflation
This week, the Federal Reserve meets however isn’t anticipated to maneuver charges. The Q&A session following the assembly will likely be intently watched as Jerome Powell wraps up his time period and President Trump prepares to announce a brand new Fed chair.
A number of dwelling worth index reviews and PPI inflation knowledge are additionally scheduled for launch this week. Moreover, the president introduced a 100% tariff on Canada if it reaches a cope with China, and market reactions will change into clearer as buying and selling begins on Monday.
