Weekly pending gross sales
Pending house gross sales knowledge supplies a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes might be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, akin to the large winter storm in January. We had been exhibiting year-over-year progress to begin the 12 months and that snowstorm did sluggish issues down.
Two weeks in the past, we had a pleasant week-to-week knowledge print. This week, we’re again to year-over-year progress once more too. Over the previous few years, our weekly pending house gross sales knowledge tends to be largely optimistic with mortgage charges close to 6%.
Weekly pending gross sales final week during the last two years:
- 2026: 59,283
- 2025: 56,693
Mortgage buy utility knowledge
Buy utility knowledge is a forward-looking knowledge line: the expansion right here leads gross sales roughly 30-90 days out, and we noticed 8% year-over-year progress on this knowledge line final week.
Nonetheless, what I actually worth is not less than 12-14 weeks of optimistic weekly progress. If you may get this along with year-over-year progress, we have now one thing legit for positive. For 2026, we have now had each week present optimistic year-over-year progress.
As you possibly can see within the chart under, we do have some seasonal stream with the weekly knowledge.
Right here’s 2026 to this point:
- 2 optimistic week-over-week outcomes
- 3 adverse week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
- 6 weeks of optimistic 12 months over 12 months progress
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
Final week we had a variety of financial knowledge and loopy headlines, however not a lot motion within the 10-year yield or mortgage charges.
After Friday’s massive Supreme Court decision on tariffs, President Trump introduced a plan to lift international tariffs to fifteen% unilaterally, however not an excessive amount of occurred with mortgage charges or the 10-year yield, even with the Supreme Courtroom information, decrease GDP numbers and inflation working at 3% 12 months over 12 months.
Charges ended the week decrease at 6.04%, based on Mortgage News Daily, and mortgage rate lock data from Polly exhibits a weekend charge of 6.26%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a optimistic story for housing in 2026, decreasing mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.
If spreads matched the 2023 peak ranges, mortgage charges could be 1.20 share factors greater, at 7.21%. With spreads returning to regular, mortgage pricing can stay decrease for longer than in earlier years. Realistically, we solely have 20-34 foundation factors of enchancment left within the spreads.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing stock grew this week as we’re near the normal rise we see annually with the spring promoting season. The expansion charge of stock has cooled since charges fell in June of 2025, however stock stays at multiyear highs, holding pricing in verify.
We’ve got gone from 33% year-over-year progress to 9.38% final week.
- Weekly stock change: (Feb. 13-Feb. 20): Stock rose from 690,547 to 700,259
- Identical week final 12 months: (Feb. 14-Feb. 21): Stock rose from 637,984 to 640,221
New listings knowledge
New listings knowledge, similar to weekly pending house gross sales, are again to year-over-year progress. Since most house sellers are additionally consumers, it is a optimistic signal that each are again to year-over-year progress.
I hope for the brand new listings knowledge to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week through the seasonal peak intervals, because it did from 2013-2019. For context, through the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings knowledge for the previous two years:
- 2026: 60,428
- 2025: 53,861
Value-cut share
Sometimes, about one-third of properties endure worth reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the share of worth cuts will increase.
Nonetheless, charges are close to multiyear lows, so after a really very long time, we are actually seeing adverse year-over-year price-cut share knowledge. This shouldn’t be shocking on condition that demand has picked up barely and stock progress has slowed.
The value-cut share final week is now 1% decrease than this time final 12 months.
The value-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Fed speeches, bond auctions and doable tariff market response
We’ve got some important financial knowledge arising this week, however we even have some fascinating storylines, with massive bond auctions and a query on how the market will reply to Trump’s massive tariff information over the weekend.
We’ve got some Fed speeches and the PPI inflation report this week, together with the house worth index stories. Jobless claims knowledge comes out each Thursday, and the information nonetheless appears good right here.
The snow impression initially despatched jobless claims greater, however that knowledge line has fallen just lately because the snow impression melts out of the information pool. That is shaping as much as be yet one more very fascinating week for the housing market!
