Hating on New York Metropolis for a residing
A pal shared this Twitter/X post, and I first thought, nicely, that is on-brand politically. However with a little analysis, it’s clear that this headline can be wildly deceptive. After I learn the piece, the very first thing I did was ask Grok, the native AI on Twitter/X, for a actuality verify. I discovered that even Grok thought it was bad, regardless of the cesspool that’s Twitter/X:
The headline sensationalizes each the mechanism and the causation.
Whereas I’ve many buddies in the true property part of the tabloid, just a few months in the past I had espresso with a enterprise editor in one other part on the NY Publish who characterised their job (paraphrased) as “discovering tales about New Yorkers fleeing town.” This was shared in a really matter-of-fact means.
This was admittedly my small PTSD expertise, because it jogged my memory of the numerous quantity of misinformation I needed to learn via in the course of the latest NYC mayoral election. I pushed again publicly utilizing fact-based analysis, and I shared just a few Housing Notes posts under on the subject — separating anecdotal from precise housing knowledge.
The NY Publish story is intentionally deceptive
The Citizen’s Budget Committee (CBC) is a tremendous useful resource for New Yorkers, and this specific research was the supply for the NY Post story. You will need to level out that:
- The CBC report refers back to the New York State economic system from 2010 to 2022, not New York Metropolis’s economic system — no overlap with the pied-à-terre tax or the brand new Mayor.
- The picture of the present NYC mayor that the tabloid used was opportunistic, meant to drive anti-socialist messaging, but he wasn’t the mayor in 2022! In reality, he was not a family title till July of 2025, when he burst onto the political scene after profitable the first. He first gained elected workplace in 2020 as a New York State Meeting member.
- The report confirmed that the variety of millionaires truly doubled to ~70,000 by 2022. In different phrases, New York added high-income filers however misplaced floor relative to the nationwide progress of prime earners and to competitor states like California, Florida and Texas, which all gained share. Nothing new right here in our understanding of the pandemic period, simply affirmation.
- Florida and Texas had been the beneficiaries of huge inbound migration from the Northeast and California following the pandemic lockdown. That inflated migration interval primarily ended at the least a 12 months in the past.
As a result of New York’s State and Metropolis budgets rely closely on private earnings taxes paid by a really small group of excessive earners, dropping the millionaire share interprets instantly into much less income. Filers over $1 million in adjusted gross earnings account for lower than 1 % of New York filers however paid roughly 40 % of the Metropolis’s private earnings tax and the same share on the state degree in 2022. If New York had merely maintained its 2010 share of U.S. millionaires, the State and Metropolis collectively would have collected about $12–$13 billion extra in private earnings tax income in 2022, fairly than $7-$8 billion.
The headline has nothing to do with the Pied-à-Terre (PAT) Tax or having a “socialist” mayor. In fact, I might assume the PAT will produce some millionaires. California, Florida and Texas all elevated their shares of the nationwide millionaire inhabitants over the identical interval that New York’s fell, strengthening their very own fiscal positions. The important thing to NYC’s financial success is placing a stability between serving the long-neglected total inhabitants and never ignoring or demonizing the rich.
The CBC report being cited
The Hidden Cost of New York’s Shrinking Millionaire Share, by the Citizens Budget Commission, has a wealth (pun supposed) of knowledge to contemplate relating to the longer term route of NYC.
New York State’s share of the nation’s millionaires shrank from 12.7 % to eight.7 % between 2010 and 2022, regardless that it has extra millionaires than ever. Different states (Florida, Texas, California) are gaining them sooner. Since a tiny sliver of prime earners covers an enormous chunk of metropolis and state taxes, that relative drop in millionaires price New York roughly $11–13 billion in tax income in 2022 alone. It’s known as “hidden” as a result of extra people and better income masks the truth that New York is dropping floor to the remainder of the nation when it comes to higher-net-worth people.
Ultimate ideas
A NY Post story blamed the mayor and the brand new pied-à-terre tax for rich New Yorkers fleeing, however the CBC report it cited covers 2010–2022, and the tax didn’t even take impact till July 2026, making the claimed trigger unattainable. In actuality, NY’s millionaire rely almost doubled to ~70,000 by 2022, however its nationwide share shrank (from 12.7 % to eight.7 %) as Florida, Texas, and California grew sooner, largely on account of pandemic-era migration that has since cooled. For the reason that prime 1 % pay about 40 % of NYC’s earnings taxes, that misplaced floor price town and state roughly $11–13 billion in 2022 income.
It’s laborious sufficient to maintain up with the information, however to spend the time to make it correct is sort of unattainable.
The precise closing thought — Let’s find out.
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